2021 British Open: The case for and against 10 potential winners
The 149th British Open returns to Royal St George’s this week for the first time since Darren Clarke’s infamous win back in 2011. It’s the fifteenth time that the prestigious venue will host the Open Championship and it finally provides the opportunity for Irishman Shane Lowry to defend the claret jug that he won in magnificent fashion back in 2019 at Royal Portrush.
The British Open was canceled in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, so this week provides the golfing World its first opportunity to witness the historic major for the first time in nearly two years at the famous championship’s most Southern of venues.
The final major of 2021 and the last as part of the PGA’s ‘Super-Season’ is certain to be hotly contested as players vie for the opportunity to win the final major this year, and although its recent U.S. Open winner Jon Rahm who is favored to lift the claret jug this week, the difference in today’s game between the best in the World is minute, here is the case both for and against ten potential winners of the 149th British Open.
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Making the case for and against ten potential winners of the 149th British Open
1. Jon Rahm (+650)
Case for: The Spaniard is the rightful favorite heading into this Open, he is the new World number one, winner of the most recent major, and has been playing better golf in 2021 than just about anybody with seven top 10’s and one win (should have been two) in just thirteen starts. Rahm is also a two-time winner of the Irish Open and was 11th at the most recent British Open in 2019.
Case against: Apart from 2019, the U.S. Open winner surprisingly doesn’t have the best of records in his limited British Open appearances, with a missed cut and two finishes outside of the top 40 in his previous three starts.
2. Rory Mcllroy (+1300)
Case for: Heartbreak from 2019 set aside, Mcllroy has a terrific history in British Open’s since 2014 with a win and three top 5’s in four of his last five appearances at the famous major. Rory was in contention going into Sunday at the U.S. Open last month and although he faltered late, signs are encouraging that a return to the Rory of old may be just around the corner.
Case against: For all the progress that has been made over the past couple of month’s inconsistencies still plague Mcllroy’s performances from time to time, particularly in the short game department which has been up and down, to say the least in 2021. While the performance at the U.S. Open would have been encouraging for Rory, he has struggled in the other two majors in 2021 with a missed cut at the Masters in April, and a 49th place finish at the PGA Championship back in May.
3. Dustin Johnson (+1300)
Case for: The now-former World number one has struggled for much of 2021 by his extremely high standards, but there may be some signs that he is just starting to figure things out again in recent starts. DJ had recorded just one top 25 finish from late February till June, but in his last three starts, he has now recorded three straight top 25 finishes. The 2020 Masters champion is simply too talented to not be competing again soon, plus he finished 2nd the last time the British Open was held at Royal St George’s.
Case against: Johnson has struggled in his last three British Open appearances and he has struggled for much of this year with just two top 10 finishes in 2021.
4. Brooks Koepka (+1500)
Case for: It’s a major so Brooks should be good on the motivation and focus levels, even in his last non-major appearance he showed up and produced a 5th place finish at the Travelers Championship, something that could be an ominous sign of things to come for the rest of the field this week. Koepka look’s to be healthier with each passing week and in his last four starts he has produced three top 5 finishes, he also has a very nice track record in recent British Open starts, surprise, surprise.
Case against: Koepka has let slip some opportunities in his last two major starts and has been bemused by his putting performances especially during the final rounds, going as far as to say:
"I had such a good putt. I don’t know if it bounced left or stayed straight. I don’t know what it did. It was a great putt. I don’t know how I missed.”"
when talking about a costly putt that he missed on the 17th hole during his final round of the U.S. Open.
5. Jordan Spieth (+1700)
Case for: Let this sink in for a moment, Jordan Spieth has finished outside of the top 20 at an event just twice since the end of January, the same player that had just two top 10 finishes in twenty starts last year, already has eight in fourteen starts in 2021. Prior to his win earlier this year at the Valero Texas Open, Spieth’s last win had come at the 2017 British Open, a major championship that he has recorded three top 10 finishes in his last five appearances at.
Case against: Spieth has managed to correct some of his errant struggles off the tee since he flipped the switch at the end of January and even with the improvements he still ranks outside of the top 110 in that department for the year.
6. Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
Case for: Two poor finishes don’t paint the complete picture for Bryson in his last two appearances at major championships. The big-hitting DeChambeau was in contention going into the final round at both the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open before a poor final round and one poor back nine ended his chances. The newly crowned ‘The Match’ champion will now take his bomb and gouge strategy to the British Open for the first time since his transformation.
Case against: DeChambeu parted ways with his long-time caddie prior to his last PGA start at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and he struggled on his way to a somewhat surprising missed cut at an event that he had torn apart on his way to victory in 2020. Bryson has also historically struggled at the British Open in his previous starts with two missed cuts and a 51st in his previous three appearances.
7. Justin Thomas (+2200)
Case for: Thomas has had a bit of a rough time since his PLAYERS win in March and he really hasn’t found himself in contention in any start since then. Still, he remains one of the best ball strikers on the planet and really has the complete game to succeed at any moment and time ranking inside of the top 10 in every strokes gained metric apart from putting in 2021. JT finished 11th at the last British Open in 2019, and he encouragingly gained strokes with the putter at the U.S. Open several weeks ago.
Case against: Justin has recorded just two top 10 finishes in 2021, and prior to 2019 had struggled in his previous appearances at the British Open.
8. Tyrrell Hatton (+3000)
Case for: There are some obvious candidates to continue the trend of breakthrough winners at major championships that we have seen in four of the last six major championships, both Finau and more so Schauffele would top the list, but how about the World’s 10th ranked player Tyrell Hatton?. The Englishman has recorded three top 10’s in 2021 and was 6th at the last British Open in 2019. Hatton has the perfect game for links golf and he should be extra motivated this week to do well having grown up just a couple of hours from Royal St George’s.
Case against: Hatton missed the cut at the U.S. Open last month and he has now missed the cut in four of his last six starts at majors.
9. Patrick Reed (+4000)
Case for: Reed has recorded eleven top 15 finishes at majors dating back to 2016 now, and he was 10th at the British Open in 2019. Patrick won’t win many popularity contests but he has the perfect type of game for an Open championship with his excellent around the green game and reliable putter.
Case against: Reed hasn’t been the most reliable from off the tee in 2021 ranking outside of the top 75 on tour, and he could make a difficult course like Royal St George’s even more difficult should he struggle with the driving club this week.
10. Tony Finau (+4000)
Case for: Finau has made a name for himself with his performances in the big events and he has a sparkling record at majors with nine top 10’s since 2018. That includes the British Open where Finau was 9th in 2018 and 3rd in 2019. The talent is there for Tony, it’s just a matter of finally getting over the line once more.
Case against: Finau missed his first cut at a major last month for the first time since the 2019 U.S. Open and he has struggled pretty badly in his last two starts coming into this week.