Emiliano Grillo: The Open Long Shot
Based on the stats and the type of course Royal St. George’s presents, Emiliano Grillo may be a great long shot pick to win The Open.
I realize that last sentence has probably never been written in the history of the world. I’m equally certain there will be no flowery Jimmy Roberts spotlight talking about how Grillo left Argentina as a kid to attend IMG Academy as a teenager.
But as I poured over the 2021 PGA Tour stats, focusing on categories that will be particularly relevant at Royal St. George’s, one name kept popping up.
Emiliano Grillo.
I know. I didn’t expect that either.
To see how I arrived at the odd intersection of The Open and Emiliano Grillo, let’s first look at the course.
If you haven’t yet, visit the Royal St. George’s website. It’s the best golf course website I’ve ever seen and, believe me, I’ve scrolled through hundreds.
What it shows, in gorgeous detail, is a course built to host Championships. It’s rich history confirms this first impression. Royal St. George’s was the first course in England to host The Open. One look at the grounds and you would be hard pressed to believe it’s not nestled in along the Ayrshire coast.
The hole routing at Royal St. George’s looks as if it was decided over a game of Pick-up Sticks. No two holes play in the same direction. That means every tee shot and approach will have its own unique wind.
With the forecast calling for an average of 14 mph breezes through the weekend, that will impact play. As will the dry conditions currently forecasted. That means hard and fast fairways and greens.
Bryson DeChambeau is going to look like Rain Man in the casino this week, numbers swirling in strange formulas about his head.
The fairways at Royal St. George’s look like an emerald bedsheet tossed upon a well-used artillery range. There is not an inch of it that isn’t rolling or dipping – this way or that – through the entire 18 holes.
Taken together – a fast course, wind from every direction, and uneven lies throughout – this is not a course that favors an imprecise bomber. Witness past Champions here like Ben Curtis, Bill Rogers, Darren Clarke, and Sandy Lyle. Not exactly a murders row. Yes, Greg Norman won here, too. But that makes him the outlier.
What wins at St. Georges is a dependable – not necessarily long – tee game, strong approach stats from the fairway and rough, and precise ball striking.
Putting is important everywhere, so I don’t think it matters most weeks. If you have a red hot putter, you can win anywhere.
So how does Emiliano Grillo come out of this equation? As I looked at several key stat categories, a few names continually popped up. Colin Morikawa, Russell Henley, Stewart Cink, and Jon Rahm all appeared in a couple of categories. But Emiliano Grillo was the name I couldn’t shake.
Of all the PGA Tour players, Emiliano Grillo is:
- 12th in Shots Gained Approach
- 1st in GIR from other than Fairway (rough and bunkers)
- 4th in GIR Total
- 1st in Proximity to the Hole
- 2nd in Fairway Proximity
- 1st in Par 4 Scoring Average
- 3rd on Tour in Ball Striking
At this point, you might be wondering about Emiliano’s short game. From tee to green he looks like Ben Hogan. Around and on the green he apparently has the touch of Hulk Hogan.
His stats suggest he chips with a Garden Weasel and putts with a fossilized whale rib. And that might be a generous assessment.
Still, can Grillo get hot for four days? Sure. Anyone can.
So if you are a gambling person, tossing a few bucks on Grillo – who is currently going off at 190/1 – might be a pay day you’ll brag about for years.
It may sound crazy to pick a journeyman with one PGA win at the Frys.com Open in 2016. No, that doesn’t sound crazy, it is crazy. But would you like to go back and put some dough on Ben Curtis at 300/1?
If Grillo can have a good – not great, but good – first round, settle his nerves, and play his game…who knows. The stats point to him as a Dark Horse. We’ll see if he’s in the Winner’s Circle or headed to the glue factory by Sunday Afternoon.