2021 BMW Championship: Rory McIlroy can rebound at Caves Valley

The FedEx Cup playoffs continue this week as the 2021 BMW Championship is set to host the remaining 70 players with the Tour Championship on the horizon.

What started out as 125 has been cut down to 69 golfers in the race for the 15 million dollar prize at the end of the FedEx Cup playoffs. Last week saw the seemingly impossible finally come to fruition as Tony Finau got that big monkey off his back and won for the second time in his career as he claimed the 2021 Northern Trust title against an elite field.

The win for Tony will surely lift the weight of the world off his shoulders and I fully expect the floodgates to open now as it pertains to his career, he is simply that talented, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he were to follow his success from last week with another win this week at the BMW Championship.

The field of 69 (following Patrick Reed’s withdrawal) are guaranteed all four rounds this week in a no-cut event with the top 30 in the standings following the BMW Championship continuing on to the Tour Championship at East Lake CC next week for the PGA season and FedEx Cup finale.

Caves Valley Golf Club host of the 2021 BMW Championship

• PAR 72
• 7,542 Yards
• Tom Fazio Design
• Bentgrass Greens
• First time hosting a PGA event

Past BMW Championship Winners

2020: Jon Rahm (-4)

2019: Justin Thomas (-25)

2018: Keegan Bradley (-20)

2017: Marc Leishman (-23)

2016: Dustin Johnson (-23)

The Favorites

The odds used in this article are provided by WynnBet and are current at the time of the article. 

Jon Rahm (+600) continues to sit at the top of the odds board and comes into this week as a pretty substantial favorite over the rest of the field to defend his 2020 BMW Championship title that he won in some fashion over Dustin Johnson last year. The Spaniard drained a 60 foot plus putt that clinched a dramatic playoff victory last year over DJ, this coming after Johnson had holed a long one of his own to force the playoff.

Xander Schauffele (+1700), Jordan Spieth (+1750), and Justin Thomas (+1750) close out the tier of favorites this week, with all three coming in substantially behind Rahm this week at the top of the board. Xander is always live in these no-cut events and he has had some impressive results on Fazio designs in the past, most recently at Kasumigaseki where he won the Olympic Gold. Both Thomas and Spieth are somewhat appealing, and of the two JT would be the pick as he looks to be coming into this week a tad bit sharper after Spieth struggled at the Northern Trust.

The twenty to one range is where I’ll begin this week’s card with though, starting with Rory Mcllroy (+2500) who despite his struggles last week has shown some promise in recent events. Rory has been striking the ball fantastically in recent times and it really was just one bad round with the Irons last week that cost him.

Mcllroy has had a good amount of success on Fazio designs before, especially at Quail Hollow site of his most recent win on Tour. Rory also finished 4th at the Olympics and he has a 4th place finish at the BMW Championship back in 2015 when held at Conway Farms (another Tom Fazio design).

The 2021 Wells Fargo Champion should be able to unleash one of his biggest strengths this week with his Driver, as early reports suggest distance off the tee could play a huge factor at Caves Valley this week. Mcllroy ranks 2nd in driving distance for the season and he even has gained strokes putting on Bentgrass greens, often having been let down by the flat stick this year. If Mcllroy can combine his elite strength off the tee with his recent success striking the ball he could be set up for a big week.

Mid Tier

I’ll go back to Hideki Matsuyama (+4000) this week even after he was plagued with inconsistencies at the Northern Trust last week. The Masters Champion had been exhibiting elite tee to green numbers before last week and even though he struggled at Liberty National he still gained a significant amount from off the tee.

Like Rory before him, Hideki has enjoyed success on Tom Fazio designs before having won at firestone and finishing 7th at the 2015 BMW Championship at Conway Farms. He also played well at the Olympics where he just missed out on a medal. Deki will need the ball striking numbers to return this week and will also need to make some putts in order to contend, but that risk is factored in with the big number we are getting on him at a no-cut event. For what it’s worth he also has finished 3rd in back-to-back years at the BMW Championship as well.

Joaquin Niemann (+5000) will be the final pre-event addition this week. The Chilean is sneakily long off the tee and ranks 12th in total driving distance for the season, he also is an elite ball-striker and positive putter on Bentgrass greens.

Joaquin had every aspect of his game firing last week and was only let down by his performance with the putter. He isn’t afraid to make birdies in bunches as demonstrated by his 2nd place finish at the Rocket Mortgage earlier this year and his win at the 2019 Greenbriar Classic when he won with a final tally of twenty-one under par.

It’s not just birdie-fests that Niemann has found success at, however, as he also finished 3rd at last year’s BMW Championship in very difficult conditions.

2021 BMW Championship Card

Rory Mcllroy +2500

Hideki Matsuyama +4000

Joaquin Niemann +5000