A standard (deviation) for rating Ryder Cup teams

Off The Tee

Statistically, the ability to pick up an edge on the field by bombing the ball has become the single most important determinant in scoring on Tour. In 2021, the relationship between how well a player did in this category and what he shot worked out to 0.57 – the strongest on Tour — on a scale where 1.00 indicates a lead-pipe relationship.

There is little to choose between the two teams in this skill; both are excellent. For the season, the dozen Americans averaged a performance level of 1.027 standard deviations ahead of the Tour average. As strong as that is, the European team – at 0.986 – was not far behind.

Among Ryder Cuppers, Bryson DeChambeau stands out with a Strokes Gained score that beat the average of his fellow competitors by a stunning 2.402 standard deviations. That’s the only number above 2.20 we’re going to see in this entire analysis.

But  DeChambeau is not alone in making things happen off the tee. Two European team members – John Rahm (1.494) and Sergio Garcia (1.287) topped one standard deviations, while McIlroy and Viktor Hovland both exceeded 0.80 standard deviations superiority.

The average standard deviation on the American team was +0.016; the European average was -0.18. That gives the Americans a thin but measurable edge of 0.34 standard deviations in the long game.

The weak links off the tee are American Jordan Spieth plus Europeans Ian Poulter and Tommy Fleetwood, all in excess of a full standard worse than the average of Cup participants.

Here’s the full list in the category of Strokes Gained Off The Tee:

Player                                 Team    Std. Dev.

Bryson DeChambeau     U.S.A       2.402

Jon Rahm                            Eur.        1.494

Sergio Garcia                      Eur.        1.287

Rory McIlroy                      Eur.         0.872

Viktor Hovland                  Eur.         0.870

Brooks Koepka                  U.S.A.     0.784

Patrick Cantlay                  U.S.A.     0.595

Matthew Fitzpatrick       Eur.          0.503

Scottie Scheffler               U.S.A.     0.430

Dustin Johnson                 U.S.A.   -0.040

Tyrrell Hatton                    Eur.       -0.159

Collin Morikawa                U.S.A.   -0.284

Tony Finau                          U.S.A.   -0.284

Xander Schauffele           U.S.A.   -0.329

Daniel Berger                     U.S.A.   -0.335

Paul Casey                          Eur.       -0.354

Justin Thomas                   U.S.A.   -0.424

Shane Lowry                      Eur.       -0.799

Harris English                     U.S.A.  -0.909

Lee Westwood                 Eur.        -0.973

Ian Poulter                          Eur.       -1.381

Jordan Spieth                    U.S.A.    -1.418

Tommy Fleetwood          Eur.        -1.549

It’s immediately apparent that Dechambeau’s dominance of this category distorts the overall averages; 14 of the 23 players rate below average compared with the Cup field. More meaningfully, while Europeans hold four of the top five positions, they also hold four of the bottom six spots. Time and again in this analysis the superiority of American depth will stand out.

It’s also worth noting in conclusion that the U.S. edge in play off the tee is the smallest to be encountered in any of the measured skill sets. For the Europeans, it only gets worse from here.