2021 Portugal Masters – Preview & Tips
By Matt Tizzard
As an Englishman when I think of Portugal and The Portugal Masters, my mind casts back to stepping off the TapAir A300. Being welcomed with that unfamiliar wave of warm air wrapping around my face, in tandem with the polite air hostess thanking me for my travel.
I quickly think of the local bars that Vilamoura are going to bless me with. I couldn’t remember the name of the cocktail bar we visited, so I googled it – only to find the first choice is “O’Neil’s Irish Bar.” It then dawned on me, that Vilamoura and the Algarve is a typical “Brits abroad” location.
The Course
Therefore, it will be no surprise to see this week’s English players backed well by a British crowd at the 2021 Portugal Masters. Played around the holiday and resort-style course of Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course, many Brits will be out in force to support players like Matt Wallace, Laurie Canter, Sam Horsfield & Beef!
It’s a flat, target-driven course and of Arnold Palmer design. The greens have complexities throughout, which can make saving par challenging for missed greens.
However, I don’t suspect this to be an issue for players that come into the week with a swing intact. The weather looks a little chillier than usual for a Portugal Masters, around the 15C mark, and the elements will only tackle the players with a light 4MPH breeze.
Greens in Regulation are the order of the week, and I will entertain you with ball strikers that can go on to win. I won’t look to ignore putting, because of our previous 2 winners. George Coetzee & Steven Brown lead the way in strokes gained putting in their respective wins. But my play this week for Fantasy league and my golf tips is to lean towards those that will give themselves chances and hope I run into one with a hot putter!
"I expect that the 20 under mark will likely be the winning number, yet it could be lower. We saw Tom Lewis make 27 birdies in 2018, the same year Oliver Fisher shot the first ever European Tour 59."
Previous Winners
2020 George Coetzee −16 Laurie Canter
2019 Steven Brown −17 Brandon Stone, Justin Walters
2018 Tom Lewis (2) −22 Lucas Herbert, Eddie Pepperell
2017 Lucas Bjerregaard −20 Marc Warren
2016 Pádraig Harrington −23 Andy Sullivan
2015 Andy Sullivan −23 Chris Wood
2014 Alexander Lévy −18 Nicolas Colsaerts
2013 David Lynn −18 Justin Walters
2012 Shane Lowry −14 Ross Fisher
2011 Tom Lewis −21 Rafa Cabrera-Bello
2010 Richard Green −18 Gonzalo Fernández-Castaño, Robert Karlsson, Joost Luiten, Francesco Molinari
2009 Lee Westwood −23 Francesco Molinari
2008 Álvaro Quirós −19 Paul Lawrie
2007 Steve Webster −25 Robert Karlsson
Key Stats
- Strokes gained in approach
- GIR
- Stroke gained putting
Selections (Consider WynnBET for your selections this week across multiple sports!)
Laurie Canter – (2u EW)
Being the time of year, I have watched some cracking horror films recently. Nothing though will compare to Laurie’s closing 76 in the final round of the Estrella Damm Andalucía Masters. I genuinely had a pillow in front of my face.
Nevertheless, the question for me was how does Laurie react to a collapse like that? The answer was a T5th and closing 64 at The Mallorca Golf Open a couple of weeks ago. Perhaps not being strictly in contention relaxed him, and he was able to swing freely without the pressure of being in the mix. Just what the doctor ordered, following the Andalucia collapse.
For me, I want to catch Laurie while he is hot. He enters this week with 3 recent top 10 finishes. I also want to note that 2020 Portugal Masters winner George Coetzee trended well in 2019 here. Laurie did the same finishing 2nd in 2020.
My worry is that for the same or similar odds you can pick up an in-form Matt Wallace or a Sam Horsfield. However, I stick with my guns and continue to back Laurie, hoping for a birdie chainsaw massacre.
Jamie Donaldson – (0.5u EW)
Jamie is playing well. I watched him at the BMW on the Friday and was massively impressed with his ball-striking and putting, amongst a bundle of birdies that lead to a 66.
Another performance of note was in the Cazoo Classic where Jamie finished 3rd, albeit against a weaker field to this one.
He doesn’t tend to play the Portugal Masters but he does step back onto the tee with some form.
He does have a T2nd on the European Tour in the Algarve in the old sister event, The Algarve Open, so maybe some positive experiences to draw upon. Jamie is one of the most senior members of the European Tour.
He gets there on my strokes gained in Approach stat at +0.26. I think this course is one where off the tee isn’t as essential, which will suit the big Welshman. He is also ahead of most of the field in putts per green in regulation (-0.02), with leaders like Garrick Higgo on (-0.06).
This combination of better than average in approach play and on the putting green is what I am looking for. Combine that with some form and there could be a push from Donaldson and a run at a return to the winners’ circle.
Kalle Samooja – (1u EW)
Kalle smashes my target stats and has one good finish around the Portugal Masters in recent years, finishing -10 & T21st in 2019. That year Samooja was 2nd to Justin Walters in Strokes gained in approach (+2.01 vs +2.19).
A trend that has continued through the years. Kalle currently picks up +2.48 strokes on the tour average in greens in regulation and +0.48 stroke on the short stuff throughout the 2021 season.
I think Kalle is a solid pick this week and you will find great value in the price offered (90/1 – 110/1)
Renato Paratore (1.25u EW)
This course is very forgiving which I hope will lead to many birdie puts for Renato. If that is the case and he can find the greens, then we are right to expect birdies. He is 3rd on the European Tour for strokes gained putting (+0.89). He finally rolled the ball very well here in 2018 when he lead in this stat.
It looked like his season was going to fritter away following 4 missed cuts in a row but has picked himself up with a T11 most recently in Mallorca, a T25 at the Andalucia (including a final round 75), and a T9 in the Open de Espania.
His long game is there for him to compete albeit not quite at the levels of a Canter or Samoja. He does tend to just about pick up shots on the field in approach. With the greens being as big as they are this week, on the resort-style course, by giving himself chances he could get on a role and put himself in with a chance.
Oliver Fisher – (0.25u EW)
Often the forgotten man who pops up into start sheets and occasionally leaderboards over recent years, Oliver Fisher famously shot the first 59 around this course in 2018. Also featured in 2019 finishing -12 and only 5 shots behind eventual winner Tom Lewis.
Form again with Oli is of concern, but that 8th place in 2019 fell into the “out of the blue” category. I also think this week would be a time to select a player that is looking for form (e.g an Eddie Pepperell or a first-time winner).
The reason, this course is forgiving, rather wide and will not punish those that may get nervous down the stretch.
I expect him to see the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course as an opportunity to find something. Fisher doesn’t smash the approach stats that I would like to see albeit he isn’t a million miles away on the greens (+0.27).
If there is a course with greens large enough for those approach stats to turn the other way, then the Dom Pedro Victoria Golf Course is the one. Oli has amazing memories here and will want to find something this week to relight his season & career. This week is definitely a week to pick an outsider or a long shot, mine this week is Fisher.