The fall Tour’s breakout stars

Aug 29, 2021; Owings Mills, Maryland, USA; Sam Burns walks on the first hole during the final round of the BMW Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports
Aug 29, 2021; Owings Mills, Maryland, USA; Sam Burns walks on the first hole during the final round of the BMW Championship golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Scott Taetsch-USA TODAY Sports /
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Mackenzie Hughes. John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Mackenzie Hughes. John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports /

9. Mackenzie Hughes

Hughes is a 31-year-old Canadian in his sixth season on Tour. He’s only won once, that victory coming in the 2017 RSM. But the start to his 2021-22 season, including a runner-up finish at this weekend’s RSM, suggests he’s rapidly figuring things out.

Hughes has made five Tour starts this fall. Beyond his second at St. Simon’s Island, he tied for fourth at the Zozo and for 25th at the CJ Cup, the two biggest-money events of the fall swing.

The average standard deviation of his five finishes is -0.70,  a level of superiority that will land a player solidly in the top 20.

That improvement has been fueled by step-ups in the two most critical phases of a player’s game, his performance off the tee and approaching the green. Here are Hughes’ Strokes Gained Off The Tee scores for the full 2020-21 season plus the 2021-22 season to date.

Season                   Off Tee                 Approach

2020-21                -.340                      -.390

2021-22                +.001                     +.137

In both areas, Hughes has turned a clear negative into at minimum a neutral element and – in the case of his approach game – a modest positive. In those two areas alone, the improvements add up to nearly a full stroke.

You can see that reflected in his stroke average: 70.59 in 2020-21, 69.29 thus far this season. That’s a 1.3 stroke difference per round.