The fall Tour’s breakout stars

3. Viktor Hovland

Hovland’s victory earlier this month at Mayakoba, measuring 3.39 standard deviations better than the  field average, was merely the most exceptional single performance by a player during the entire fall season.

The wonder, then, isn’t that he ranks third for the entire fall. The wonder is that two guys rank ahead of him.

Hovland almost certainly would have been the star of the fall tour if he had played more. He made only three starts and one of them – a tie for 44th at the Shriners – was lackluster. He tied for 18th at the CJ Cup.

So when we talk about Hovland’s season, we’re really talking about that exceptional week at Mayakoba. Give the guy full credit; he torched a solid field. The runner-up, Carlos Ortiz, shot 19-under, four behind Hovland. Justin Thomas was third at 18-under, with Scottie Scheffler (-17 under) and Matthew Wolff/Joaquin Niemann (16-under) rounding out the top five.

Obviously, nobody gave Hovland anything.

That Mayakoba win was the third of the 24-year-old’s career and his second straight at Mayakoba. As the 10th ranked player in the Official World Golf Rank, Hovland is no longer any sort of sleeper pick. But his fall showing, and especially his perseverance at Mayakoba, mark him as a breakout Major threat this season.