The fall Tour’s breakout stars
By Bill Felber
2. Matthew Wolff
Ever since Wolff joined Hovland in making the leap from Oklahoma State to the Tour, the wise guys have been predicting success. He does have one victory, that coming as a rookie in 2019, plus four runners-up.
Despite that and the more than $7 million he’s won to date, Wolff has been something of a disappointment, or possibly the victim of expectations. But his run through the fall 2021-22 tour suggests that may be about to change.
Wolff made four starts this fall, all of them top 20s and two top fives. He tied for 17th at Sanderson, finished solo second to Im at the Shriners, tied for fifth behind Hovland at Mayakoba and tied for 11th at Houston.
The average standard deviation of a Wolff performance this fall was -1.26. Do that in any given week and you’re a solid bet for the top ten with a shot at top five.
But the most impressive aspect of Wolff’s fall season probably wasn’t any of the peaks. Rather it was the absence of valleys. Last year, Wolff missed the cut or withdrew in 35 percent of his starts. For his career, he’s failed to complete four rounds nearly 25 percent of the time.
In fact, to find the last time Wolff completed four rounds in four straight starts you have to go back a full year to the rail end of 2020.
That kind of inconsistency has been what has sabotaged him. Not so this year. Wolff has positive scores in all four of the major Strokes Gained categories, leading to a +2.186 Strokes Gained total that ranks fourth on Tour. Two of the three guys ahead of him are Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa, nifty company indeed.