At the 2022 Sony Open, Tournament of Champions experience helps

If you are looking for a good bet at this week’s 2022 Sony Open, start by taking a run through the field at last week’s Sentry Tournament of Champions. More than half the 39-member Sentry field has elected to hang around a second week in Hawaii. That includes record-setting champion Cam Smith, who will try to make it two in a row at Waialae.

Five other members of the Sentry top 10 – Matt Jones, Kevin Kisner, Sungjae Im, Cam Davis and Marc Leishman – will also tee it up.

There’s abundant precedent for believing that participation at the Sentry gives players a leg up at the following week’s Sony. Since the Tournament of Champions was moved to Kapalua one week ahead of the Sony, 18 of the 23 Sony victors – and 10 of the most recent 11 — had played the previous week at Kapalua.

The only recent exception was this week’s Sentry winner, Smith. He won the 2020 Sony after failing to qualify for the Tournament of Champions. Since 2011, Smith is the only Sony victor who did not at minimum use the Sentry as a warm-up.

A handful did far better than that. In 2017, Justin Thomas beat Hideki Matsuyama by three strokes at Kapalua, then made it a double One week later at Sony. Thomas ripped around Waialae in 59 on Thursday and never let up, beating Justin Rose by seven strokes.

Back in 2003, Ernie Els did the same thing. He delivered his now-famous 31-under to win the Sentry by eight, then beat Aaron Baddeley in a playoff at Waialae. Who could use the Sentry as a springboard at the Sony this week.

There are plenty of options, beginning with Smith’s chance to make it a double. Aside from him, Jones, Kisner, Im, Davis and Leishman, the others trying to capitalize on their Sentry experience include defending Sony champion Kevin Na. He tied for 38th at the Sentry.

Other Sentry veterans in this week’s field are Abraham Ancer, Stewart Cink, Joel Dahmen, Harris English, Lucas Glover, Talor Gooch, Branden Grace, Billy Horschel, Si Woo Kim, Jason Kokrak, K.H. Lee, Matsuyama, Seamus Power and Erik VanRooyen.

Although doing well at the Sentry is its own reward, it is not a particular advantage with regard to the Sony; showing up is what really matters. Of the 18 Sony champions since 1999 who also played the tournament of Champions, only seven finished in the top 10 at Kapalua.

Aside from Thomas and Els, that list includes Fabian Gomez (t6 in 2016), Jimmy Walker (2nd in 2015), Johnson Wagner (t9 in 2012), Zach Johnson (t6 in 2009), Vijay Singh (t5 in 2005). But Na merely tied for 38th at Sentry before winning last year at Waialae, and Russell Henley parlayed a 27th place finish at Kapalua in 2013 into the following week’s Sony title.