2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational: The Complete Bay Hill Guide

Best Bets For Bay Hill

Jon Rahm’s odds remain disgusting. He’s the number one player in the world and the obvious favorite but +800 is way too short for a guy who only has six wins on Tour. Rory McIlroy is the number one player in my model this week, but his price is also too short for me.

(Odds Courtesy Of WynnBet)

Viktor Hovland (+1600) He has terrible course history here, which is surprising because this is the ideal course for his game. Hovland playing golf tournaments has become a tax for me. I’m taking Hovland this week as I do every week but I’m leaving emotional bets off the official card.

He led the field in birdies here last year but finished in 49th. If he can minimize the big numbers, I love his chances. Since Cantlay to win the Masters dropped from 20/1 to 16/1 on most books, I’ve been throwing free bets on Hovland to win the PGA Championship. The PGA this year takes place just an hour away from where he resides in Oklahoma. This price could drop before Thursday so if you want to take Hovland, waiting might not be a bad idea.

Adam Scott +3000 (.6 units)  An elite ball-striker who has shown good form recently, Scott is balanced across the board. Admittedly, this price is a little shorter than I would have liked, but not short enough for me to pivot off of him.

Paul Casey +4000 (.45 units) This was my first click of the week because I couldn’t believe the number. The #1 iron player in the field and #3 ball-striker, Casey is checking all the boxes. His numbers across the board are better than Fitzpatrick’s so the pricing differential between the two is a head-scratcher. He’s one of the few Europeans who has proven he can win on Tour. He has more wins (3) on US soil than Oosthuizen (0), Fitzpatrick (0), Fleetwood (0), and Lowry (1) combined. The top 10 finish here last year doesn’t hurt either.

Jason Kokrak +4000 (.45 units)  Zero wins in his first 233 starts, Kokrak finally broke the seal. Since then, he’s won three times in the past year and a half.  8th,18th, and 10th are his last three finishes on this course, and he’s only played once since he broke the seal. Kokrak crushes it off the tee and you’d be hard-pressed to find a course more suited to his game.

Billy Horschel +4500 (.4 units)  Everyone and their brother had some exposure to him last week except me. His play last week convinced me to get in on him this week when much fewer people are. Billy Ho put on a ball-striking clinic at the Honda but his short game and putting let him down. Horschel himself believes he is a good putter, so if the ball striking is there I’m not concerned about his short game at all.

Corey Conners +6000 (.3 units)  One of the best ball strikers in the field, Conners finished third here last year. The price is reflective of him missing three of the last four cuts but at +6000 I’m willing to take a shot on a guy with the ball striking and off the tee numbers, Conners has.