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Sawgrass: Where the game’s elite crash and burn

By Bill Felber

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 14: Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship on THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 14, 2021 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 14: Justin Thomas of the United States plays his shot from the 17th tee during the final round of THE PLAYERS Championship on THE PLAYERS Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 14, 2021 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images) /
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The Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass may be the PGA Tour’s ‘fifth major,’ but it has not been kind to the game’s major stars.

Forty-eight of the world’s top 50 players are expected to tee it up Thursday. Those 48 have made a collective 275 starts at Sawgrass over the course of their careers, but they do not generally have pleasant memories of the place.

Consider this factoid. Ninety-two of those 276 starts – that’s one of every three – ended in a missed cut, while only 76 ended in a top 20 finish. Keep in mind that we’re not talking about the run-of-the-mill Tour player here; we’re talking about the world’s 50 best right now.

Just a few examples:

  • Patrick Cantlay (World No. 3) has missed the cut in his last two Players appearances, and his best finish is a tie for 22nd.
  • Xander Schauffele (No. 8) tied for second in his Players debut in 2018, then missed the cut in 2019 and again in 2021.
  • Jordan Spieth’s (No. 14) last five Players starts ended this way: cut, cut, cut, tie for 41st, cut.
  • Tony Finau (No. 20), looking forward to his sixth Players appearance, has three missed cuts, a tie for 57th and a tie for 22nd in the first five.
  • Harris English’s (No. 18) history at Sawgrass is so depressing that he’s sitting out the week. He’s made seven previous starts, his best coming in his 2013 debut, a tie for 33rd. English hasn’t made the cut since.

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It’s not that the games’ best can’t win here. They do…occasionally. Starting with Adam Scott (No. 34) in 2004, six members of the current top 50 have claimed the trophy: Scott, Phil Mickelson (No. 42) in 2007, Sergio Garcia (No. 48) in 2008, Webb Simpson (No. 31) in 2018, Rory McIlroy (No. 5) in 2019 and Justin Thomas (No. 7) last year.

But when you consider the full panoply of data, Sawgrass makes the games’ current best look pretty ordinary. Since 2012, the average standard deviation performance of those among the current top 50 who survived four rounds at Sawgrass is a modest -0.26. Translation:  the game’s elite played only slightly better than did their average competitor.

And that only considers the 155 times those members of the current top 50 lasted through all four rounds.  It doesn’t factor in the 77 times since 2012 that members of the current top 50 went home on Friday evening, having missed the cut.

It’s not that Sawgrass is an especially difficult layout for a Tour pro. Since 2012, the average winning score there has been 274.3; that’s 13.7 under the 72-hole par of 288. For purposes of comparison, the average winning score at Augusta National has been 276.3, two strokes higher. The average winning score at the U.S. Open, which is generally played to a four-round par of 280, is just four-under 276.0.

Nor has Sawgrass historically taken it out on the game’s best. Tiger Woods won here in 2001 and again in 2013. Jack Nicklaus won three times, an accomplishment that is better than it sounds since the tournament wasn’t created until Nicklaus was already well into his 30s.

No, the problem seems to be that the Players doesn’t like this particular crop of greats. Perhaps the recent victories of Simpson, McIlroy, and Thomas signal that the pattern is changing and the games’ best are stepping up.

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Among the current greats, Thomas has had the best fortune at Sawgrass. His six previous starts include a tie for third in 2016, a tie for 11th in 2018, and his 2021 victory.

Thomas, however, stands out. The table below shows the current World Top 10 as well as their number of Players starts, their best finish, top 10s, and missed cuts

Player                    Starts  Best  Top 10   Cut

1 Jon Rahm                4        T9        1            0

2 Collin Morikawa    1        T41      0            0

3 Patrick Cantlay      4        T22      0            2

4 Viktor Hovland       1        cut       0            1

5 Rory McIlroy          11         1        4            5

6 Scottie Scheffler     0

7 Justin Thomas         6          1       2            0

8 Xander Schauffele  3         T2      1            2

9 Dustin Johnson      11        T5      1            1

10 Cameron Smith      4       T17    0             2

The world’s current 10 best players have tackled Sawgrass’s challenges 45 times. They can claim two wins and nine top 10s, but they also have to own up to 13 missed cuts.

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