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The Players Championship Preview and Picks

By Matt Hupfer

PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 08: Collin Morikawa of the United States speaks to the media during a press conference prior to THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 08, 2022 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images)
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA - MARCH 08: Collin Morikawa of the United States speaks to the media during a press conference prior to THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 08, 2022 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images) /
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2022 Players Championship, Best Bets, PGA, TPC Sawgrass
PONTE VEDRA BEACH, FLORIDA – MARCH 08: Russell Knox of Scotland plays his shot from the fifth tee during a practice round prior to THE PLAYERS Championship on the Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass on March 08, 2022 in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida. (Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images) /

Players need a balanced game to win The Players Championship

The beauty of TPC Sawgrass is that it favors no particular playstyle. Any type of game can win on this course but any deficiencies in a player’s game will be exposed.

Looking at the past five winners’ results is evidence of how balanced a player’s game needs to be to win on this course. The only outlier is Webb Simpson who got red hot with the flatstick and gained over nine strokes putting over his first two rounds here. The following is a list of the top 10 in the field in each stat for the last 36 rounds. For putting, only players who are not in the bottom 25% in two of the other five stats are included. The last column is a player’s rank if all these six stats are weighted equal for the last 36 rounds.

Also. Sawgrass: Where the games' elite crash and burn. light

Obviously, there are other key stats to account for (scoring, i.e. par 5 efficiency , bogey avoidance, birdie or better, etc.) and more in depth stats (proximity for approach and scrambling/sand saves for ARG etc.) in building a model but this is just a rough draft accounting for these six categories.

Numbers are important, but they aren’t the end-all and be-all. The name Luke List may stand out as a cheap outright and DFS option but be aware that he is the worst putter on tour right now. He gained 3.7 strokes putting in his win at the Farmers five weeks ago. Since then, he has lost 15 strokes putting over his last three events and more than nine in his last two.

Also notice that Collin Morikawa is only found in BS and App. Morikawa has only played in five events this year and two of them (Zozo and Hero World Challenge) don’t have stats available. Morikawa struggled in the FedEx Cup playoffs last year and those numbers are influencing his stats.

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