2022 WGC-Dell Match Play: Top 10 power rankings at Austin CC

Close, but no cigar, is how I see Jon Rahm this week.

The Spaniard hasn’t relinquished his world No. 1 title since July, but that’s more due to his consistency than stockpiling wins.

In fact, Rahm hasn’t been victorious since his 2021 U.S. Open title.

The 27-year-old does have a solo second-place finish at the 2022 Sentry Tournament of Champions where it took a historic performance from Cameron Smith to outdo Rahm. Rahm also took T-3rd at the Farmers Insurance Open and was in the top 10 in Phoenix.

Rahm made a run to the 2017 WGC-Dell Match Play finals in his tournament debut and got to the quarterfinals in his fourth appearance in 2021.

I envision him duplicating his 2017 result. It starts with advancing through Group 1 featuring No. 23 Patrick Reed, No. 40 Cameron Young, and No. 58 Sebastian Munoz.

That’s no walk in the park, and I could see Rahm needing to win a playoff just to move on.

No. 23 Patrick Reed has been down on his luck with injuries and hasn’t found much success since switching to PXG Clubs. But he’s a gamer who’s been through the battles and will relish a pseudo Ryder Cup matchup with Rahm.

Young is the early favorite for PGA Tour Rookie of the Year. He has two runner-up finishes this season and five more top-30s. While Joaquin Niemann blistered the field at the Genesis Invitational, Young was the closest in earshot en route to T-2nd.

However, it’s Young’s tournament debut and Rahm is one of a few guys who can keep up with Young’s prowess off the tee. Rahm is first in SG off the tee (1.299) and eighth in driving distance (315.8) compared to fifth (.776) and second (319.6), respectively, for Young.

Then there’s No. 58 Sebastian Munoz. While the Colombian settled for T-33rd in his last start at The Players Championship, he still earned his way into the final group in the final round en route to his fifth straight top-40. Munoz only has one WGC-Dell Match Play appearance that did not go well in 2021, though.

Rahm will get by to face No. 28 Shane Lowry in a tough round of 16 matchup. The two have European Ryder Cup experience and will relish the day they can be teammates again. Lowry was oh so close to winning the Honda Classic last month and comes in with seven straight top-25s.

I see Rahm having an easier time dispatching No. 27 Talor Gooch in the quarterfinals and then No. 45 Brian Harman in the semifinals. I bet he’d take this path anyday.

He’ll get right on the cusp of ending his win drought. Ironically, another player who was winless for a while but is now red-hot will cool off Rahm.