2022 WGC-Dell Match Play: Top 10 power rankings at Austin CC

What’s more impressive, advancing to the WGC-Dell Match Play finals in your tournament debut, or winning the whole thing your second time around?

The first one Scheffler accomplished in 2021. The second he hopes to check off this week.

First-timers tend to struggle at this event. Austin Country Club is far from the toughest course players will see on the PGA Tour schedule, but it’s a Pete Dye design that can be visually and physically testing. Not only that, but youngsters are also having to adapt to match play with little to no experience as an amateur or pro. Especially so for Americans, where the format is less common than across the pond.

Scheffler made his Austin Country Club debut with aplomb last year. It helped he played collegiately right here in Austin as a Texas Longhorn and had some familiarity with the layout.

More importantly, he’s just a really good player. At the time, it was one of many close calls that didn’t result in wins.

Scheffler’s been heating up since he got the monkey off his back by hoisting the trophy at the 2022 WM Phoenix Open. He avoided the next-week hangover by posting T-7th at the Genesis Invitational and winning again in U.S. Open-like conditions at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Par was a good score at the API and it usually is here at the Match Play. Birdies are better, though, and it’s easier to go pin hunting in this format. Scheffler’s fifth on the PGA Tour averaging 4.9 birdies per round.

I see him moving on to the round of 16 by finishing ahead of a trio of English lads in Group 5: No. 20 seed Matt Fitzpatrick, No. 41 Tommy Fleetwood, and No. 59 Ian Poulter.

Fitzy is hot with five top-12s in his last six starts and presents the biggest threat to Scheffler. He’ll be hitting first on most approaches, so if he can put the pressure on Scheffler, who knows. But Fitzpatrick is 0-for-5 in making it out of group play for his career.

Fleetwood has oodles of European Ryder Cup team credentials and made it to the quarterfinals at the 2021 WGC-Dell Match Play. He’s got three straight top-25s leading in, but he struggles when the chips are down and it’s time to close out a tournament.

Closing out an elite talent like Scheffler is a similar challenge.

Lastly, Poulter was one of the final players in the field. The 46-year-old is without a top-10 on the PGA Tour since Colonial last year. The former WGC-Dell Match Play champion will make life difficult on his opponents, but he’s never made it to the semifinals in Austin and has his best golf behind him.

I forecast Scheffler to meet Tom Hoge in the round of 16 in a battle of two of the top FedEx Cup movers and shakers this season. Both are very well-rounded and don’t post a ton of high numbers. Scheffler just has more firepower.

Scheffler continues to avoid facing chalk opponents in bracket play in my eyes, drawing Ryder Cup teammate No. 17 Daniel Berger. Berger did well to get this far, but his current form is nowhere close to Scheffler’s.

The run continues in the semifinals where I like Scheffler to adjust from playing a past teammate to a past Ryder Cup foe, No. 3 Viktor Hovland.

Scheffler will have the home crowd on his side, even against a lovable figure in the ever-smiling Hovland. He’ll ride the wave to the championship where it doesn’t get easier against No. 1 Jon Rahm.

We could just as well see these guys duke it out at Augusta in a couple weeks. Both did not play in last week’s Valspar Championship. They’re both in their 20s and will have the stamina to play well deep into Sunday

Scheffler will learn from his close call last year and continue to build his early case for PGA Tour Player of the Year with a finals win at the WGC-Dell Match Play in extra holes over Rahm.