2022 Masters Betting Guide: Key Stats and Best Bets at Augusta

The first major of the year is finally here. The Masters is a tradition unlike any other and the most coveted event to win by the overwhelming majority of players. Winning the green jacket is enough to immortalize a player amongst the legends of the game.

With Tiger Woods looking more and more likely to tee it up, the eyes of the entire world will be on Augusta National this week. The top-50 players and ties make the cut after 36-holes. The historic cut line at the Masters is +3.5.

The Field at the 2022 Masters

The Masters usually has the fifth strongest field of the year behind the other three majors and The Players. The strength of the field is determined by the number of top-200 ranked players in attendance, and the Masters has the smallest field of all the majors.

Start a 7-day free trial of fuboTV to stream The Masters

This year the field sits at 91 players. Six amateurs are invited based on results in five amateur events from the previous year, and all former Masters champions have a lifetime exemption. As cool as it would be to see Keita Nakajima or Fred Couples win, it’s not going to happen, so right off the bat, we can eliminate 14 players from the list of potential winners.

The rest of the field qualified by one of the following: top-50 in OWGR, top-30 in FedEx Cup standings last season, a major championship win in the last five years, Players win in the last three years, a top-12 finish at the last Masters, or a top-4 finish in any major last season.

Phil Mickelson and Harris English are the only players who qualified via a top-50 OWGR that are not in the field. 2009 Masters champion, Angel Cabrera, won’t be playing either because he’s still serving time in an Argentina prison.

Key Stats to consider at the 2022 Masters

A complete game is required to win at Augusta National as any holes in a player’s game will be exposed. Augusta National doesn’t track strokes gained so the only stat available from the previous Masters is strokes gained: total. Augusta National is not a place you come to find your game, so all these stats are based on a player’s last 24 rounds.

Approach is the most indicative of success at Augusta. Only two players in the top 10 in greens-in-regulation last year didn’t finish in the top 10 for the tournament. Jordan Spieth led the field in greens-in-regulation, but he still missed 16/72 greens. The average player at Augusta missed 26/72 greens last year so a good short game is a necessity.

All four par 5s are reachable in two and 8/10 of the par 4s are between 440-500 yards, so pay close attention to who is scoring well on these holes as well as avoiding bogeys. Augusta has wide fairways so driving accuracy is not important, but no player has entered the Masters losing strokes off-the-tee and won in the last 10 years.

Augusta is one of the longest courses the pros will play all season. Therefore, driving distance and longer approaches (that accounted for 75% of the approaches last year) are being factored into the model. Only three players in each of the last two Masters avoided three-putting for the entire tournament. Three-putts are going to happen, but I want a player who is going to minimize them.

Putting stats in this model only account for putting on fast, Bentgrass greens. No first-time winner has won the Masters since 1979. I want someone with experience who has decent course history. This is the model I’ve settled on.

Approach (30%)

•    Strokes Gained: Approach (15%)
•    Proximity 150-175 (5%)
•    Proximity 175-200 (5%)
•    Proximity 200+ (5%)

Scoring (20%)

• Strokes Gained: Par 5 (7%)
• Strokes Gained: Par 4 450-500 (7%)
• Bogey Avoidance (6%)

Around-the-green (18%)

• Strokes Gained: Around-the-green (11%)
• Strokes Gained: Short game on firm and fast greens (7%)

Off-the-tee (13%)

• Strokes Gained: Off-the-tee (7%)
• Driving Distance (6%)

Putting (11%)

• Strokes Gained: Putting on fast, Bentgrass greens (8%)
• Three-putt avoidance (3%)

Course History (8%)

Strokes Gained: Total Augusta National (8%)

The biggest surprise is Joaquin Niemann at #5, but he gained 30 shots on the field in his last four tournaments. Hideki Matsuyama has withdrawn from his previous two tournaments, so I’ll be avoiding the defending champion. Paul Casey, Bryson DeChambeau, and Webb Simpson also have injury concerns so be wary if you choose to play them this week.

Want your voice heard? Join the Pro Golf Now team!

Write for us!

2022 Masters Best Bets

Most of my Masters futures I placed months ago so some of the odds are no longer available. No unit allocation this week because a lot of them are free bets. If I didn’t place my two FOMO bets, I’d have taken Rory McIlroy. Rory has six top 10 finishes in his last eight Masters appearances. No one desires a green jacket more than Rory, who needs it to complete the career grand slam.

Patrick Cantlay +2000: I got this number during the Phoenix Open. This number has gotten longer due to his recent struggles off-the-tee and the MC at the Players. I’d love for him to win because I stand to make the most money if he’s sitting in Butler Cabin Sunday evening, but I’m not sure I would bet him at 25/1 now.

Scottie Scheffler +2500: I grabbed this in the middle of the Dell Matchplay. I don’t recommend betting him at 16/1 or less but the world number 1’s game lacks nothing and he’s won three of his last five starts.

Cam Smith +3000:I took this during the final round of the Sentry. I wouldn’t bet him at the numbers he’s priced at now because his driver is a bit of a concern. I’d take DJ or JT over Cam if I was dipping this low now, but I’m most confident with my Smith and Scheffler futures.

Will Zalatoris +3500: The only thing holding him back right now is putting. Watching him hole everything at the Dell Matchplay convinced me to get in on Will Z. This number may have come down a little but I still like him at anything in the 30s. He finished solo second by one shot in his only Masters appearance last year. If he’s holing putts, he’s going to give himself a chance.

FOMO Picks:

Viktor Hovland +2300: Please don’t bet Vik this week. He has the worst short game in the field, including the amateurs and elderly past winners. I consider myself more of a golf fan than an analyst and there’s no way I’m missing a payday if, by chance, my favorite player wins his first major.

Tiger Woods +8000:  If I was a professional bettor, I wouldn’t be taking this bet. There’s very little information about his game right now. He didn’t look great at the PNC Championship in December, but people at Augusta say he looks sharp. First and foremost, I’m a golf fan and there’s no one I’d rather see donning the green jacket than Tiger Woods.

This is merely a FOMO pick as I don’t want to be put in a position where I have to choose between rooting for Tiger or one of my outright picks on Sunday. The books obviously don’t think he has any chance, and they will be licking their wounds if he wins. He’s the goat and has never missed a cut at Augusta since turning professional. Most books are offering +money on him to make the cut and that’s the bet I recommend taking.