The Masters: Sunday Breakdown and Tee Times, Can Scottie Be Caught?

After Scottie Scheffler saw his lead trimmed on Saturday at the Masters, does anyone have a realistic chance of catching him on Sunday?

When Saturday began Scottie Scheffler was lapping the field as he held a five-shot lead over the rest, setting him on pace for one of the most dominant wins in Masters history. Come Saturday night, however, that lead has been trimmed and it is no longer a question of historic margins, but of hanging on period.

Scheffler still is very much the favorite to win the green jacket on Sunday as he takes a three-shot lead over Cameron Smith into Sunday’s final round. Scottie sits at (-9), with Cameron Smith three shots shy of that (-6), and third place Sungjae Im five shots back at (-4). So the question is, can anyone catch Scheffler?

Sunday tee-times at the 86th Masters

Group 1: Adam Scott and Cameron Davis will be the first group to go out on Sunday at 10:10 am EST

Notable Others

Group 5: Tiger Woods and Jon Rahm – 10:50 am EST

Group 12: Tony Finau and Sergio Garcia- 12:10 pm EST

Group 18: Hideki Matsuyama and Viktor Hovland- 1:10 pm EST

Group 21: Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa- 1:50 pm EST

The lead groups will begin their final round at 2:30 pm EST

Group 25: Sungjae Im and Shane Lowry- 2:30 pm EST

Group 26: Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Smith- 2:40 pm EST

Can Scheffler be caught?

(Odds courtesy of WynnBet)

According to the oddsmakers, Scottie Scheffler (-300) remains a pretty significant favorite to win the green jacket on Sunday. Data Golf meanwhile, gives him a 73.4 % chance to win going into the final round. It would seem as though despite his late struggles on Saturday, Scheffler is still by and large the man to beat.

The World number one finished 19th at Augusta National in 2020 and 18th in 2021. A win this week would give him his 4th victory of 2022 and 4th in his last six starts.

Cameron Smith (+230) is ready to take advantage if Scheffler were to falter. The Players Champion bounced back on Saturday with a 68, four under Par round. This came after he shot two over Par (74) on Friday. Smith’s 68 during Saturday’s third round at the Masters was the best round of the day, two shots better than Tommy Fleetwood’s 70.

The Australian will be looking for his third win of 2022 and according to Data Golf, he has a 20.4% chance of wearing the green jacket come Sunday evening.

The oddsmakers list 24-year-old Sungjae Im (+1800) as the third favorite going into the final round of the Masters. The 2020 Honda Classic winner enters the final round five shots behind leader Scottie Scheffler. Sungjae missed the cut at last year’s Masters but he was runner-up to Dustin Johnson here in 2020.

Im is given just a 3.5% chance of pulling out the victory on Sunday. The Korean posted some nice results to begin the year with an 8th place finish at the Sentry Tournament Of Champions, an 11th (American Express), and a 6th (Farmers). He has struggled a bit of late though with his highest finish of 20th coming back at the Arnold Palmer Invitational in March where he recorded his best finish on Tour since the aforementioned Farmers.

Players at -2 and -1 don’t appear to have a realistic chance of catching Scheffler on Sunday unless something historically crazy were to happen. The group at those numbers includes Shane Lowry, Charl Schwartzel, Justin Thomas, and Corey Conners. All four are given a 1.1% chance or less of winning the 2022 Masters.

It would appear as though Sunday is more than likely to come down to a two-man race between Scheffler and Cameron Smith if the Texan is to falter.  Scheffler has been excellent all week and the metrics speak to this as he leads the field in strokes gained tee-to-green (+5.34) through three rounds. It is difficult to envision the World number one not getting across the line on Sunday for his first Major, even with Augusta National playing a part.

Should Scheffler accomplish this and win by three or more shots, he would be the second Masters winner in the last three years to win by a significant margin. Following in the footsteps of Dustin Johnson in 2020.