2022 RBC Heritage Breakdown and Picks

A surprisingly strong field makes its way to Harbour Town this week for the 2022 RBC Heritage.

It’s time to turn the page on what was a memorable Masters and turn our focus towards this week’s RBC Heritage.

Harbour Town Golf Links is the site for this week’s PGA Tour stop and despite it playing the role of being the first event after a major, the tournament has attracted a significantly strong field as players make the short trip from Augusta to Hilton Head Island.

The 2022 RBC Heritage’s 477 rating puts it above seven other events that have been played on the PGA schedule in 2022, and it slots in just behind the Farmers Insurance Open earlier this year in terms of field strength.

Dustin Johnson is a regular attendee of the event at Harbour Town, he is joined this week by Collin Morikawa, Justin Thomas, Cameron Smith, and Patrick Cantlay. Five of the top ten in the world rankings are set to tee it up this week in South Carolina.

The Pete Dye-designed Harbour Town Golf Links will host the PGA Tour once again in 2022. It has been hosting tournament golf since 1969. The 7100 yard, Par 71 layout is very much a second shot course. The Bermuda greens are tiny, so the course puts a premium on accuracy from tee to green.

Players that have great short games and who can scramble to get up down when not finding greens in regulation will be rewarded. Let’s take a look at who is favored going into this week and make a few picks for this week’s RBC Heritage.

Favorites at the 2022 RBC Heritage

(Odds courtesy of WynnBet)

• Collin Morikawa  (+1400)
• Justin Thomas     (+1400)
• Cameron Smith  (+1800)
• Dustin Johnson  (+2000)
• Matt Fitzpatrick  (+2000)
• Patrick Cantlay  (+2000)
• Shane Lowry  (+2200)
• Corey Conners  (+2800)
• Daniel Berger  (+3000)
• Russell Henley  (+3000)
• Sungjae Im  (+3000)
• Webb Simpson  (+3000)

Pick to Top 20: Matthew NeSmith (+450)

This will be one of the more popular picks this week and for good reason. The South Carolinian found himself in contention at the Valspar Championship a couple of starts ago and he will have taken a great deal of confidence from his performance at Innisbrook.

Now he gets to return to a course that he loves. NeSmith rates out 11th in this field in approach play in 2022 and he has had significant success in that department in two previous starts at Harbour Town, gaining on average 4.5 strokes across both starts here.

Matthew has made the cut in both of his two previous appearances at the RBC Heritage, 48th (2021) and 33rd (2020). He comes into this week in decent form with two top 25 finishes in his last four starts and though he will need to find a bit of success with his short game this week, I am confident he can do so on his way to a best-ever finish at Harbour Town.

Pick to Top 10: Joaquin Niemann (+350)

The 2022 Genesis Invitational winner has been a bit quiet since picking up the win at Riviera in February. He missed the cut at the Honda Classic, before having a decent week at the Players Championship (22nd) under extreme circumstances. The Chilean got off to a great start at the Masters with an opening 69 before slipping down the leaderboard as the week went on, none the less, it was an encouraging sign that he may be getting back to his very best.

Joaquin has played the RBC Heritage just once, this came back in 2020 right after the golf restart during the pandemic. He finished 5th on his debut at Harbour Town. It is a course that should suit his game perfectly, he is an elite iron player who has a short game that is improving with each start.

Niemann is someone who may be going a bit under the radar this week, and while I don’t know if he will win, I do like him to contend this week on a course that he is rumoured to love.

Pick to Top 5: Corey Conners (+550)

This is a pretty good number on someone who has been playing as well as Conners of late. The Canadian is coming off of another great performance at the Masters as he produced his best ever finish (6th) at Augusta National. Conners now has three top 10 finishes in his last three starts there.

Corey really has been playing great since the Arnold Palmer Invitational (11th), after returning to a bit of form at Bay Hill Conners added a 26th (Players), and 3rd (WGC-Dell Match Play), before his 6th place finish at the Masters. The only letdown, if you can call it that, came at the Valero Texas Open where he finished T35.

After a few rough starts he has seemingly pieced things together at Harbour Town in his most recent appearances. He was 21st here in 2020, and 4th last year. The Canadian is an elite ball-striker who is playing very well right now, it seems like he is on the verge of winning again and I definitely like his chances of putting up another strong result this week.

Pick to Win: Shane Lowry (+2200)

Speaking of building towards a win, that describes Shane Lowry perfectly. There are not many who are playing better then the Irishman right now, and now he gets to return to a place that he has had some nice finishes at in recent years. Lowry was 9th here last year, and 3rd back in 2019, so it is clearly a course that he is comfortable playing.

Harbour Town really suits his game well, he is a great iron player, has a terrific short game, and is generally accurate off the tee. Amongst the field this week, Lowry rates out 12th, 16th, and 14th in those areas this year.

In addition, the 2019 Open Champion comes into this year’s RBC Heritage arguably playing better then he has in any other year leading into this event. Shane has finishes of 2nd (Honda), 13th (Players), 12th (Valspar), 35th (Match Play), and 3rd last week at the Masters, in his last five starts. The Irishman is trending towards a win and I think he is holding the trophy at Harbour Town come Sunday evening.