Is Scottie Scheffler On Pace For Historic Money Earning Year?

Scottie Scheffler is having a rewarding season, both on the course and financially.

His Masters win, with its attendant $2.7 million first-place check, brought him above $10 million in official earnings for the 2021-22 season, That already ranks Scheffler fifth all-time in Official Money won for a full season. It also means he is almost certain to break the record set by Jordan Spieth at $12.03 million in 2015.

Compared with players of previous eras, inflation and a growing popularity of golf both –swelling purposes — have obviously influenced the value of Scheffler’s performance. So how exceptional is that $10 million?

The PGA Tour provides Official Money records for most seasons since 1980. We can make informed estimates to fill in the gaps. Having collected that data, it’ll take a little work, but we can equalize all the numbers in order to make a dollar-for-dollar comparison across the years.

It is, however, a two-step process.  Step 1 involves normalizing for inflation; step 2 involves normalizing the inflation-adjusted data for the periodic growth in the PGA Tour’s fast-growing popularity with sponsors.

Both steps are important because Scheffler’s record earning pace is informed by both inflation and the Tour’s popularity.

Prior to the season’s start, Tour officials announced a $100 million purse increase, from about $415.4 million to about $520 million. The nation’s 6.1 percent inflation rate accounts for about $25 million of that growth. But that leaves about $80 million to be explained by that other major factor, increasing popularity.

Using 2022 as a baseline, we’ll backfill the inflation rate to normalize – for each prior season back to 1980 – both the leading money winner’s total and the season-long purse.

We can then calculate the percentage of that total claimed by the leading money winner. Whoever’s normalized winnings amounted to the largest percentage of the normalized purse is the single-season money winning leader.

Scottie Scheffler has already accumulated north of 10 million dollars in 2022

To date, Scheffler has won $10.098 million. The season-long purse for 2022 amounts to about $520 million. That gives Scheffler a 1.94 percent share.

That’s obviously unfair to Scottie Scheffler in this respect; there remain nearly five months’ worth of events, three of them Majors plus the season-ending Tour Championship, to be decided. By the end of August, he’ll doubtless have raised that 1.94 percent figure, maybe substantially. More on that in a bit.

First let’s begin by reviewing the historical data, both actual and normalized.

Here is a table of the 10 leading actual money-season totals. All figures are in millions

1 Jordan Spieth, 2015, $12.030

2 Vijay Singh, 2004, $10.905

3 Tiger Woods, 2007, $10.867

4 Tiger Woods, 2005, $10.628

5 Tiger Woods, 2009, $10.508

6 Scottie Scheffler, 2022, $10.098

7 Tiger Woods, 2006, $9.942

8 Justin Thomas, 2017, $9.921

9 Brooks Koepka, 2019, $9.684

10 Dustin Johnson, 2016, $9.365

Since those numbers are obviously unfair to players who competed in earlier, less dollar-friendly ages, we now need to normalize the data.  Adjusted for inflation and growth, this, then is the table of the real 10 best money-winning seasons since such records became both available and complete in 1980.

We’ve changed one column; replacing the raw dollar total with the percentage of purse – adjusted to 2022 levels – that the player’s adjusted winnings amount to. (In two cases, the  absence of official purse data requires us to make an estimate; those are indicated by an asterisk.)

1 Tiger Woods, 2000, 4.91%

2 Vijay Singh, 2004, 4.81%

3  Tiger Woods, 2005, 4.42%

4 Tiger Woods, 2007. 4.03%

5 Tiger Woods, 2006, 3.90%

6 Tiger Woods, 1999, 3.78%

7 Tiger Woods, 2009, 3.59%

8 Vijay Singh, 2003, 3.52%*

9 Jordan Spieth, 2015, 3.44%

10. Tiger Woods, 2002, 3.35%*

For the moment, Scottie Scheffler’s 2022 season only stands 21st on this list, at 1.94%. That’s understandable, given that less than half the season-long purse has yet been contested. It also raises the question: How high might Scheffler eventually rank on this adjusted all-time list by the time the season actually ends.

That depends, of course, on how Scottie Scheffler does between now and September 1. So we’ll have to make some assumptions. Let’s begin with a modest one.

Say for the sake of argument that Scheffler cools off, and only wins about half his current total the rest of the season. That would still run his total to a record $15 million, and equate to 2.88 percent of the overall season purse.

It’s a wondrous percentage…but it would still only move Scottie Scheffler up to 11th all time, barely ahead of Woods’ 2001 season, when Tiger’s adjusted percentage was 2.87

Let’s think larger. From a money standpoint, we’re not quite halfway through the season. Where would Scheffler stand if he matched his earnings to date through the remainder of 2021-22?

That would bring him to an extraordinary $20 million in earnings plus change, smashing the previous record. It would translate to 3.85 percent of the total pool, and stand him sixth, right between Woods’ 2006 (3.90%) and Woods’ 1999 (3.78%).

Okay, so even $20 million doesn’t get Scottie Scheffler to the top of the adjusted earnings table…what does? He’ll need to add a little more than $15.6 million to his present total in order to get there. At $25.6 million, Scheffler’s season would amount to 4.92 percent of the total pot, nudging him ahead of Woods’ three-Major 2000 season and into the No. 1 spot all-time.

Obviously, $15.6 million atop what Scheffler has already won would be a monumental accomplishment. But it could be done with a victory at the Tour Championship, which last season carried a $15 million first-place prize. Given Scheffler’s present status as the world’s No. 1 ranked player, the idea of him winning the Tour Championship is hardly far-fetched.

Scottie Scheffler could also get his additional $15.6 million in other ways, but they would involve more work. He could pick up a couple million apiece by winning any of the three remaining majors, another $1.5 million or thereabouts by taking any of the other significant events still to be played, and between $2 million and $3 million just by coming home top five at the aforementioned Tour Championship.

Here’s the bottom line. Scheffler has a long way to go to get his 2022 earnings to measure up with the adjusted earnings of the best of prior seasons. But there is certainly a path for him to get there.