Can Anyone Derail Jon Rahm’s Winning Aspirations In Mexico?

Jon Rahm holds a marginal advantage over the rest of the field heading into Sunday’s final round in Mexico.

It has been a while since the former World number one Jon Rahm has tasted victory, in fact, you have to go all the way back to last summer’s US Open to locate his last win. Hard to believe it has been that long for Rahm who is seemingly always finding himself near the top of the leaderboard on any given week.

The 2021 US Open winner has quite remarkably finished inside of the top 10 at an event nine times without winning since he held the trophy at Torrey Pines last June. Meanwhile, Rahm’s best result in 2022 came during the season opener in Hawaii at the Sentry Tournament of Champions where the Spaniard finished runner-up, thanks in large part due to a sensational performance from the 2022 Players Champion Cameron Smith.

Jon has slipped to number two in the World now while watching Scottie Scheffler’s ascension to becoming the best player on the planet. He won’t be able to reclaim that spot at the top this week, even with a win, but he can at long last win once again on Sunday in Mexico.

Jon Rahm has a fantastic opportunity to secure his first win of the 2021-22 season this week.

After rounds of 64, 66, and 68 over the first three days, Rahm sits alone at the top of the leaderboard going into the final round of the inaugural Mexico Open at Vidanta. He will take a marginal two-shot lead over the competition into Sunday and Jon is relishing the opportunity that has presented itself to him this week.

“Enjoying a Sunday in the lead. It’s been a little bit of a while. The crowd loves me so far, I can tell. You know, they want me to win, so hopefully I can do it for them. But so far I’m proud of the way I’ve played and I can just keep enjoying each moment and each second of it and hopefully play as solid as I have tee to green, keep hitting fairways, keep hitting greens, and like I said, just roll a few and hopefully extend that lead,” Rahm said when asked what he would most be looking forward to going into Sunday.

A handful of players sit just several shots back of the Spaniard’s lead, so the question is, can he hold off the chasing pack and secure his first win of the year?.

According to Data Golf Jon Rahm has nearly a 60 percent chance of lifting the trophy when all is said and done, that is a fairly significant number considering his lead currently sits at just two shots. Sportsbooks have even more confidence in his ability to secure the win as he currently sits as a -180 favorite over the rest of the field (Odds courtesy of WynnBet).

This would all seem to imply that the rest of the field has their work cut out for them in their attempts to chase down Jon Rahm on Sunday, but all hope is not lost for the chasing pack as Justin Ray alluded to on Twitter on Saturday when he Tweeted:

So which players are most likely to chase Rahm down if he is to slip up this week at the Mexico Open at Vidanta?

Cameron Champ

The big-hitting Cameron Champ seemingly is best positioned to capitalize if Rahm is to falter. Champ is a three-time winner on the PGA Tour who has the winning experience required to succeed in this position. He is very much a boom or bust type of player who has often found himself either in contention or missing the cut altogether, but he does come into this week in pretty good form after securing a 10th place finish at the Masters in his last appearance.  Cameron excels when he can use his length off the tee as a weapon, like he can this week, as he ranks 1st in driving distance this season. He sits just two shots back going into the final round and would appear to be the player most likely to take advantage of any mistakes by the leader.

Kurt Kitayama and Nate Lashley

Both players have experience winning, Kitayama with three wins on the DP World Tour; Asian Tour, and Lashley with the PGA Tour victory he picked up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in 2019. Kitayama, like Champ before him, also sits just shots adrift of the lead going into the final round. His best finish in 2022 came back at the Honda Classic where he finished 3rd, Kurt will have a very good chance of chasing down Jon Rahm if he can maintain the hot putting performance that he displayed during the third round when he gained an incredible 4.45 strokes on the greens.

Lashley is probably having the better year in 2022 up to this point with more consistent performances on Tour so far. He has recorded three top 25 finishes in three of his last five appearances. Unlike the others though, Nate will go into the final round in Mexico three shots behind leader Jon Rahm. Lashley has been solid all around this week but he is going to need a bit more help from the players around him if he is going to come away with the win here.

Davis Riley and Patrick Rodgers

Riley and Rodgers will each go into the final round three shots back of Rahm, and they are the two players that can be considered as longshots to win this week. Both players are still in search of their first PGA win. Patrick Rodgers has experience of being on Tour longer to fall back on as he has been around since 2015. His best solo-finish in 2022 was a 38th place finish earlier in the year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, but he did string together some nice results to begin the PGA season with a 6th place finish at the Fortinet Championship and a 4th at the Bermuda.

Patrick has been the best player within shouting distance of the lead with his approach play this week and he will need to keep that up if he hopes to mount a serious challenge. Riley doesn’t have the experience of Rodgers as he has only just begun his PGA career after turning professional at the beginning of this season, but he did get a taste of being in contention not that long ago at the Valspar Championship where he finished runner-up to eventual winner Sam Burns. Davis is a talented young player who will be looking to use that experience he gained at the Valspar to his advantage this week as he looks to secure his first PGA win.

A player of Jon Rahm’s caliber would be expecting to win on a more regular basis and this week presents him with an excellent opportunity to accomplish that. It’s time for the Spaniard to convert some of those top 10s into wins, and if he can do so there is no telling what type of run he may go on in the coming weeks.