2022 AT&T Byron Nelson: 3 Dark Horse Picks Who Could Win It All

With the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson kicking off at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, TX, on Thursday, it’s time to make those final picks before first tee-off.

This event will vastly contrast what golf fans saw last weekend at the Wells Fargo Championship at TPC Potomac in terms of conditions and strength of the field. Being the last tournament before the PGA Championship, we are seeing some bigger names rejoin the field for a final tune-up before the Major event.

That doesn’t mean there isn’t room for a few dark horses to take a tournament win at the Byron Nelson away from the likes of Scottie Scheffler and Justin Thomas, who are both naturally heavy favorites this weekend.

If you had the opportunity to read the complete breakdown of the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson by Pro Golf Now’s own Matt Hupfer, you’d be privy to the fact that some of the more important statistics to focus on this week are Strokes Gained on Approach Shots and Scoring Metrics. Considering these, let’s take a look at a few names from the field who have an outside shot at taking home a tournament win at TPC Craig Ranch.

Three Potential Dark Horse Winners at This Week’s AT&T Byron Nelson

(All odds courtesy of WynnBET)

Adam Hadwin

WynnBET Odds: Outright Winner +4500

Adam Hadwin isn’t featured on many lists or power rankings for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson. He is most certainly a dark horse contender this week though. He is projecting to finish second according to my own predictive model. This is largely due to the fact that Hadwin only ranks behind World number one ranked Scottie Scheffler in Birdies or Better over the last twelve rounds.

No matter what value you put on putting statistics, it is worth noting that the 34-year-old Canadian ranks amongst the Top-10 in Strokes Gained Putting on Bentgrass. In addition to his favorable metrics, Hadwin has been playing some very solid golf in 2022 – finishing 9th, 7th, 4th, and 26th over his last four tournaments.

Matthew Wolff

WynnBET Odds: Outright Winner +10000

Following Matthew Wolff’s tournament finishes this season is a bit of a roller coaster ride. He has five finishes inside the top-25. Conversely, he’s missed four cuts, and made two cuts where he didn’t finish inside the top-60.

It’s not speaking in general golf cliché to say that Wolff battles with consistency. However, he has some advanced statistics that indicate that if he were able to get his mind right, he could have success at TPC Craig Ranch. He ranks above average in Going For The Green – Birdie or Better, Approaches from 225-250, Strokes Gained Around the Green, and Strokes Gained Putting.

Tom Hoge

WynnBET Odds: Outright Winner +10000

Tom Hoge doesn’t have a lot of momentum on his side in terms of recent tournament performance. Since his T14th at the WM Phoenix Open, he hasn’t finished higher than 32nd and has missed two cuts in his previous six starts on Tour.

Hoge’s rank in some key statistical areas year-to-date including Birdies or Better Gained, Strokes Gained on Par 4’s, and Par 3 Efficiency at 200-225 yards show that he could contend this weekend. The 32-year-old TCU alumnus also ranks number ten in Strokes Gained on Approach, one of my most heavily weighted statistical metrics this week.