TPC Craig Ranch: K.H. Lee’s Personal Playground

Perhaps the phenomenon that is K.H. Lee at TPC Craig Ranch can best be explained by borrowing from the lexicon of racing: horses for courses.

Lee piled birdie upon birdie again Sunday, shooting a closing 63 to win the AT&T Byron Nelson for the second consecutive year. His 26-under total beat Jordan Spieth by one stroke.

Last year Lee shot 25-under to beat Sam Burns by three strokes.

Lee has won $7.3 million during his career on the PGA Tour, about 42 percent of it since last May at TPC Craig Ranch alone. His two stops there are also the only two victories of his career.

Until Sunday, the 2021-22 season hadn’t been an especially inspiring one for Lee, a 30-year-old from Korea in his fourth full season on Tour. His best finish was a tie for 14th at the Shriners last October. His best finish this calendar year had been a tie for 25th at the Wells Fargo Championship last week.

Lee entered the week ranked a tenuous 95th in scoring average (70.909) and an even more tenuous 116th on the FedEx Cup points list. He leaves TPC Craig Ranch ranked 72nd and 28th on those same two lists.

K.H. Lee has proven he is very comfortable at TPC Craig Ranch over the last two years.

The data, at least for the past two seasons, suggests there may be only two places in the world where Lee is comfortable, and Craig Ranch is one of them. (The other, for the record, is TPC Scottsdale; more on that in a moment.)

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Lee has teed it up twice at a dozen different PGA Tour stops. Those dozen, listed alphabetically, are: Bay Hill, Country Club of Jackson, Harbour Town, PGA National, Riviera, Torrey Pines, TPC Craig Ranch, TPC San Antonio, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, TPC Summerlin, and Waialae.

If there is such a thing as horses for courses in golf, one would expect Lee to have performed pretty similarly on those courses during both visits. With one or two exceptions, he has. From best to worst, here’s the data.

• TPC Craig Ranch: Average finish: 1st. Average 18-hole score: -6.4. Average standard deviation: -2.415.
• TPC Scottsdale: Average finish: T-20. Average 18-hole score: -2.9. Average standard deviation: -0.73.
• Waialae: Average finish: T33. Average 18-hole score: -2.9. Average standard deviation: +0.850.
• TPC Sawgrass: Average finish: T45. Average 18-hole score: Even par. Average standard deviation: +0.660.
• TPC Summerlin: Average finish: T47. Average 18-hole score: -2.3. Average standard deviation: +0.850
• Riviera: Average finish: 46th. Average 18-hole score: +0.4. Average standard deviation: +1.205.
• Bay Hill: Average finish: T61. Average 18-hole score: +2.0. Average standard deviation: +1.415.
• PGA National: Average finish: T64. Average 18-hole score: +1.5. Average standard deviation: +1.560
• Country Club of Jackson: Average finish: T63. Average 18-hole score: -1.0. Average standard deviation: +1.615.
• RBC Heritage: Average finish: T68. Average 18-hole score: +0.5. Average standard deviation: +1.835.
• TPC San Antonio: Average finish: T51. Average 18-hole score: +2.7. Average standard deviation: +1.835.
• Torrey Pines: Average finish: missed cut. Average 18-hole score: +5.5. Average standard deviation: 2.500.

At only two of the dozen courses does Lee average both an under-par round and a negative – which is to say good – standard deviation. The standard deviation is important in this context because it provides a reflection of the player’s numbers relative to those of the full field.  Five-under is an excellent score…as long as everybody else isn’t shooting 10-under.

That discounts Lee’s performance in the Sony Open at Waialae, which played exceptionally easy this past January. That week Lee was under par all four days yet still managed only a tie for 48th because the field average was nearly a dozen strokes under par.

Consider this: At any of the other 11 courses Lee has played twice since the start of the 2020-21 season, his average 18-hole score has been about three-tenths of a stroke above par, yet at TPC Craig Ranch it’s been nearly six and one-half strokes under par.

He has posted 29 rounds in the 60s, and all eight of his Craig Ranch rounds are among those 29. Seven of the 29 came in at 65 or lower, and four of those seven were shot at Craig Ranch.

The data does not, of course, establish that there are horses for courses generally. But it does suggest that the bromide applies to any human golfer-horse named K.H. Lee. His showings at TPC Craig Ranch have tended to run far outside the norm for his usual performance range.