2022 PGA Championship: Complete Breakdown and Betting Guide

PGA Championship: Key Stats for Southern Hills

It would be disrespectful to Southern Hills to call it a second-shot course, but approach is undoubtedly the key to success this week. A shot to the center of the green will suffice on every single hole.

The course is a lot different than in 2007 so it’s hard to know the average proximity on each hole but most will come between 125-200+. The course is designed to test every aspect of a player’s game. No one is going to hit every green so they will need to scramble to save par. The tiny greens will funnel balls into deep bunkers and up to 40 yards off into collection areas, so players are going to miss a profusion of them. Around the green and sand saves are going to be vital this week.

The course is expected to play tough, so I want to identify who has played well in difficult scoring conditions and can avoid bogeys. Despite the wide fairways, trouble off the tee can bring big numbers into play so players need to drive the ball well. Although Southern Hills is not a bombers paradise, the course is long so driving distance will help.

This is a major championship so, unfortunately, we must look at putting on Bentgrass this week. If the greens were running as fast as they could the course would be unfair, and the winner would be well over par, but players cannot give away shots three-putting. With no course history to analyze we need to identify a comparable course. Augusta National will be our comparable course this week and we’ll only be looking at the last 12 rounds there. The rest of the stats will take into account the last 36 rounds.

Approach (38%)
·       Approach (17%)
·       Greens in regulation (5%)
·       Proximity 125-200 (4%)
·       Proximity 150-175 (4%)
·       Proximity 175-200 (4%)
·       Proximity 200+ (4%)

Around-the-green (16%)
·       Around-the-green (12%)
·       Sand saves (4%)

Off-the-tee (12%)
·       Off-the-tee (7%)
·       Driving distance (5%)

Scoring (17%)
·       Total in difficult scoring conditions (6%)
·       Scrambling (6%)
·       Bogey avoidance (5%)

Putting (11%)
·       Putting on Bentgrass greens (8%)
·       Three-putt avoidance (3%)

Comparable Courses (6%)
·       Total on Augusta National (6%)

The proximity was the most difficult to give value to because nobody knows how far players will be playing their approach. It’s a little surprising not to see Scottie at the top of the model. The stat that’s holding him back? Putting.

Justin Thomas is the only player with a green number for every single stat. He’s in the top 33% of the field for each one. Jon Rahm is 12th in the model. His rank is weighed down by scrambling (112), sand saves (139), and approaches from 125-to 150 (122).