2022 PGA Championship: Complete Breakdown and Betting Guide
By Matt Hupfer
PGA Championship: Forecasted Weather
I want to preface this by saying that I’m not a meteorologist. After checking the wind forecast, it appears that the AM/PM wave has a significant advantage over the PM/AM wave. The wind is pretty level across the board on Thursday and Friday, but the gusts are worthy of attention.
According to the forecast right now, the AM/PM wave will play in a minimum of 15 mph gusts and a maximum of 27 mph gusts. The PM/AM wave will play in a minimum of 21 mph gusts and a maximum of 44 mph gusts. There is rain in the forecast on Friday so that could change things. The rain certainly flipped the draws at the Players Championship so I wouldn’t pass on someone I like just because of the wind. However, if you’re between two picks I would err on the side of caution and take the player who has the better draw.
Picks For The 104th PGA Championship
Eight of the last 10 winners were shorter than 45/1, but Phil Mickelson won last year priced at 200/1. Scottie Scheffler said that Southern Hills is his favorite golf course and he’s rightfully the favorite.
He was 25/1 on Sunday of the Masters but I wasn’t in a legal betting state and missed the number. I hate betting the top of the board, but Scottie is very tempting this week, even though he is on the wrong side of the draw.
I have a short card this week because I have a good feeling about who is going to win. My picks are in order of least to most confident.
(Odds courtesy of WynnBet)
Jason Day +9000
I had a $100 free bet and my pick to win was inexplicably 16/1. I waited for my guy’s odds to drop until the day it expired, and they didn’t. At the time, Jason Day was putting on a ball-striking clinic and had a three-shot lead after two rounds at the Wells Fargo.
He’s a former PGA champion and was playing as well as he had in years, so I thought 100/1 was good value. He shot 79 the next day and finished 15th. Unfortunately, he’s on the absolute wrong side of the draw. I almost didn’t mention this pick because I probably wouldn’t take him at the shorter price of +9000 now.
Oliver Bekker First Round Leader +15000
Admittedly, I don’t follow the Euro tour much. I’ll watch the end of the final round on Sunday morning before the PGA tour’s final round starts. Bekker always seems to be on the first page of the leaderboard. In his last 10 starts on the DPWT, he has 7 top 10 finishes. In one of the other three tournaments, he came in 11th.
The European players generally are much more accustomed to the wind than those who play in the States. The wind will be gusting at 25 mph in the afternoon on Thursday but will be much calmer in the morning. I don’t see the FRL coming out of the afternoon groups. Bekker has an early tee time on Thursday, so I’ll take a chance on him beating half of the field in one round.
Patrick Cantlay +2000
I threw a few free bets on Patrick when he was at +2200 somewhere in the middle of his six consecutive starts with a top 10 finish. He’s gained on the greens in his last seven and around the green in 11/14 so his numbers are encouraging. If he was on the right side of the draw, I would be much more optimistic about this one, but unfortunately, he’s not. He’s top five in the world so he’s one of the few who can overcome being dealt a bad hand.
Hideki Matsuyama +2000
Hideki is another player I managed to get at longer odds of (+4000) but I would still take him at his current number. You’ll see his name more often than not in the key stats chart, as he ranks in the top 10 in nine of them. He had neck problems a few months back that led to some withdrawals, but he looks to be 100% now. His form has been great this season. He hasn’t missed a cut in 12 events. He has eight top 20s in his 12 starts, including wins at the Zozo and Sony Open. He fired a 62 on Sunday to finish T3 at the Byron Nelson and he’s on what appears to be the good side of the draw.
The Conviction Play
Viktor Hovland +3100
The time is now for Viktor Hovland to win his first of many major championships. He lives in Stillwater, which is just an hour west of Southern Hills. Very few players are familiar with this version of the course, but Hovland will be more accustomed to the windy conditions than the entire field.
In the two tournaments that had the most wind this season, he finished 9th at the Players and 2nd at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Yes, his chipping is abysmal, but he’s the best iron player in the entire field. The Players had by far the worst wind this year and the PGA Championship looks to be on par with that. He finished second in greens in regulation and third in approach stats that week and this was with one of the two players in front of him having recorded an Albatross.
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The course is going to play harder than expected and he’s top five in the field in scoring in tough conditions. I’ve been throwing free bets on him since odds were released last year with odds ranging from 20-25.
Your 2022 PGA Champion
