PGA Championship Winner Will Be: Not Who You Think

Trying to figure out who is going to win the PGA Championship is a little like playing whack-a-mole.  For instance, on Saturday, someone would emerge and lead only to be whacked by conditions or bad shots or missed putts or sticky, wet rough, and then another guy would pop up. Then whack! He’d be out of it.

If the final found is anything like the third round, get ready for the unexpected. Prepare for excitement because those on top of the leaderboard, hate to say it, are unlikely to win.

The result of Saturday’s play is a strange set of circumstances where none of the top four on the leaderboard have ever won on the PGA Tour, much less a major championship. They are newcomer Mito Pereira from Chile, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Will Zalatoris, and Cameron Young.  Fitzpatrick has victories in Europe which will bolster his confidence somewhat.

Stalking them are a group of players that are much more likely to actually win this year’s PGA.  In theory, they would pounce and move up on the leaderboard if the current pack at the top fails under the pressure of trying to win a major.  Succumbing to the pressure is something that happens often on Sundays, and it happens very often in majors.

Should the leaders falter on Sunday at the PGA Championship these veterans are ready to pounce.

First among the stalkers, there’s Justin Thomas, who had a tough day Saturday and was 2-over for his round.  Despite that, Thomas is a seasoned professional and has the shots to get it done around Southern Hills. He should be pick No. 1.  He’s already won a PGA, so he knows how.

Following Thomas is Bubba Watson, who is pick 1 A.  Watson, you’ll recall, has two green jackets and a whole rainbow of personality quirks. Regardless, he hit amazing shots in difficult conditions all week to put himself in position for another major.  He’s a high ball hitter who can figure out how to play in the wind, which is unusual.  When he’s on, his game is something to behold.

Then there’s Webb Simpson.  It is hard to count him out.  He’s not long.  He’s not a great putter.  However, you will seldom see him far from the middle of the course.

“It’s probably top– probably two or three — best rounds I’ve ever had in a major, you know, considering the conditions,” Simpson said about the weather he faced during the third round. “We have a mist out there all day, clubface is getting a little wet, it’s blowing sideways.”

Webb Simpson is a former U.S. Open champ, and that’s all you need to know when asking whether he’s tough enough to come through on Sunday.  His grit has grit.

Tied with Simpson is another U.S. Open champ, Gary Woodland. Again, he has not been a frequent visitor on leaderboards lately, but we do know he has won the U.S. Open, typically one of the toughest tournaments to win. He can’t be counted out.

Rory McIlroy is nine strokes back, and unless he shoots the round of a lifetime and 16 people play poorly, his chances for this tournament for this year are over.

And then there’s the surprise, outside sentimental favorite, 49-year-old Stewart Cink.   In 2001, Cink had a putt to be in the playoff for the U.S. Open at Southern Hills. He missed it, and instead Mark Brooks and Retief Goosen played 18 holes the following Monday with Goosen being victorious.  If there’s such a thing as golf poetic justice, Cink winning the PGA would be it.