2022 RBC Canadian Open: Course Breakdown, Projections, and Best Bets
The 2022 RBC Canadian Open kicks off on Thursday, June 9th from the St. George’s Golf and Country Club in Ontario, Canada.
This par-70, 7,014-yard course plays fairly unique. It features five par-3s and three par-5s. The par-3 holes play particularly long at 200 to 215 yards. The par-5 holes are easily reachable playing between 538 to 560 yards. The par-4s will be picked apart with two of the holes under 400 yards.
Naturally, the course went through some renovations since the PGA TOUR last stopped here in 2010. They removed some trees, widened fairways, and rebuilt the greens.
The 4,000 square feet average Bentgrass greens offer tricky contours and multiple tiers – probably St. George’s best defense against the PGA TOUR this weekend.
Factoring in course layout, course (or course comp) performance and tournament success, this week’s model put a premium on golfers who excelled at strokes gained on approach, putting, and scrambling.
Other weighted categories include par-3 scoring, strokes gained tee-to-green on courses shorter than 7200 yards, good drives gained, and others.
Using these key areas, the statistical model has projected the following top-ten for this week’s RBC Canadian Open:
RBC Canadian Open Top 10
- Justin Thomas (+900)
- Cameron Smith (+1100)
- Shane Lowry (+1800)
- Scottie Scheffler (+800)
- Rory McIlroy (+900)
- Sam Burns (+1400)
- Adam Hadwin (+3500)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick (+1800)
- Tony Finau (+2500)
- Harold Varner III (+3300)
(All odds courtesy of WynnBet)
This statistical model obviously deviates from the betting favorites. Most of the betting action has been with the best golfers in the world. However, there are a few longer shots amongst the world’s highest-ranked golfers in this week’s top ten. Let us take a look at a few of the best bets amongst the projections.
Shane Lowry – Outright Winner (+1800)
Shane Lowry has been quietly playing well – “quiet” implying that he hasn’t been able to secure a tournament win in the 2021-2022 PGA TOUR season.
The 35-year-old Irishman is due. Lowry has posted four top-three finishes, only missing two cuts in the twelve tournaments he has played this season.
Currently ranked 25th in the Official World Golf Rankings, Lowry is ranked 11th on the PGA TOUR in strokes gained on approach and third in proximity to hole from the fairway.
As previously mentioned, St. Georges’s Golf and Country Club will present some complex greens which favor strong putters as well. Lowry is currently ranked 14th in strokes gained putting this season.
Matthew Fitzpatrick – Outright Winner (+1800)
Matthew Fitzpatrick has been a betting favorite of mine all season. He has been consistent in his statistical and tournament performances…with not nearly the betting action that the rest of the top-20 golfers in the world receive.
Aside from three missed cuts in a couple of early-season tournaments, he has finished with six top-tens, eight top-25’s and only three missed cuts this season.
If his season record isn’t enough to get you on board, Fitzpatrick is ranked 24th in strokes gained approach, third tee-to-green, and fourth in scrambling.
His 32nd-ranked putting is still above the PGA TOUR average. The RBC Canadian Open could very well be Fitzpatrick’s chance to secure his first PGA TOUR victory of the season.
Tony Finau – Top-10 Finish (+250)
Tony Finau has been rather inconsistent at times this season. After finishing T2 at the Mexico Open, he posted a T41 and T30 at the Wells Fargo Championship and PGA Championship respectively.
Most recently, Finau finished T4 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. Over the last 24 rounds of golf, Finau has been locked in ranking third off-the-tee, 22nd on approach, third around the green, and second tee-to-green.
Finau has built a reputation for delivering untrustworthy putting performances. However, over the last three tournaments, he had positive strokes gained in putting, so he is certainly trending upwards.
If he is even able to break even in strokes gained putting this week, he could easily find himself amongst the top 10.
Harold Varner III – Top-20 Finish (+150)
Harold Varner III had a heck of a run going at the Charles Schwab Challenge this season. He was among the leaders until the final day when he posted a 78.
Varner had a bit of a meltdown on the final day finding himself four-putting, finding water on the par-3, and knocking a drive out of bounds. The statistical model projects him inside the top-10 but this squirrely performance cannot be overlooked…so, I’ll take the safer odds on the top-20 finish.
The St. Georges’s Golf and Country Club course is perfect for Harold Varner III, however.
Varner struggles off of the tee at times, though that shouldn’t hamper him on the shorter course with wider fairways. While Varner isn’t the strongest putter on the PGA TOUR, he still ranks among the top in putting average.
Next. Rickie Fowler to Miss U.S. Open Again, Remains “Intrigued” by LIV Golf. dark
Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks sixth in strokes gained on approach, 20th around the green, and is tied with Tony Finau for second in strokes gained tee-to-green. If he can maintain that strong iron game, that should certainly minimize his putting shortfalls.