122nd U.S. Open: USGA Stats Say Scheffler Wins, McIlroy, Rahm Have Shot

Since the topic of betting has taken hold at all sporting events, it was interesting to discover that the USGA has a place on their scoreboard where they predict every player’s chance of winning the U.S. Open.

Nobody is given even a 20 percent chance, but Scottie Scheffler tops the USGA favorites at 17.9 percent.

Making it harder to analyze is that most of the leaders from round two of the U.S. Open got kicked in the backside so hard during round three that they almost landed on the nearby Massachusetts Turnpike.

Some survived, though injured, like Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, and defending champ Jon Rahm, all of whom clawed back after being wounded by the conditions at The Country Club.

Rory McIlroy started at 4-under par and had to one putt eight of the last nine greens to stave off losses and end the day at 1-under par.  He missed fairways.  He missed greens. He missed putts. His draw turned into a hook. It’s a wonder he didn’t bite his clubs in half.

“It was one of the toughest days on a golf course I’ve had in a long time. I just needed to grind it out, and I did on the back nine,” McIlroy explained to media after his round. “It was sort of like a tale of two sides. I left some out there on the front nine, but I held it together on the back, and I think at the end of the day it evened out.”

He said he had not played in that much wind for quite a while.

Rahm went from 4-under par at the start to 5-under at the 17th.  However, he doubled the 18th to drop to 3-under par, one behind the lead, and he was not happy about the final hole.

“It’s infuriating in a sense to finish that way with how good I played those holes, but like I kept telling myself, if on the 14th today you tell me you can post 1-over par and not play the last five holes, I would have ran to the clubhouse because of how difficult it was playing,” he said after he was done.

Scottie Scheffler began his round at 3-under par, and he got as low as 6-under par before bogeys attacked him on the back nine.  He doubled the par 3, 11th, and then bogeyed the next three holes in a row.  Finally, he cut back the deficit with a birdie at the 17th and crawled into the clubhouse.

“The U.S. Open is very taxing, mentally and physically,” Scheffler said to media after his round.

"“That’s all part of what makes this tournament so fun. You’re going to get tested all different kinds of ways, whether it be physically, mentally, whatever it is. This golf tournament is going to test you.”"

He said the conditions were so difficult that he was just trying to hang in there.  That was his only goal.

Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick lead the way heading into Sunday at the U.S. Open

Nobody had a great day, except Will Zalatoris and Matthew Fitzpatrick.  Fitzpatrick won the U.S. Amateur at The Country Club a few years back. They are tied for the lead at 4-under par.  If either one shoots two or three under par tomorrow, it’s likely he would win.

But, if the leaders drop shots, who is likely to win the U.S. Open?

NBC’s Paul Azinger said at the end of the telecast that those down to the plus ones have a good chance. He then said even the plus twos aren’t out of it.

That would mean 10 players have a great shot.  Zalatoris and Fitzpatrick, who are at 4-under, Rahm at 3-under, Scheffler, Adam Hadwin, and Keegan (where has he been?) Bradley at 2-under, McIlroy, Sam Burns, and Joel Dahman at 1-under and Nick Hardy at even.

Those with an outside chance at 1-over include Denny McCarthy, Gary Woodland, Seamus Power, Matthew NeSmith, Aaron Wise, and Hayden Buckley.

Honestly, it’s unlikely the plus twos will get the job done because it would mean that all those ahead of them would have to have horrible days and one of those at plus two would have to produce a Johnny Miller at Oakmont in 1973 type of round. (Miller shot a 63 early in the day, and no one could catch him.)

So, are we going to break the “biggest name doesn’t win” curse of The Country Club at Brookline?  Are we going to break the “always a playoff” record and have a finish in regulation on Sunday? And who will triumph?

I’m of two minds.  My original pick, Billy Horschel didn’t make the cut, so that shows you what I know. But I did pick Scheffler to win the Masters, which goes in the even a blind squirrel finds nut theory.

If it’s the Francis Ouimet standard, where the lesser-known golfer beats the top guns, then it’s either Zalatoris or Fitzpatrick in a playoff with either Rahm and Scheffler, Scheffler and McIlroy, Rahm and McIlroy, or all three, McIlroy, Rahm and Scheffler against either Zalatoris or Fitzpatrick. And in the Ouimet scenario, the underdog wins.

However, based on their records, it should be Scheffler, Rahm, or McIlroy raising the U.S. Open trophy tomorrow.

Crazily enough, the USGA has some stats, right on their leaderboard, to indicate who is most likely to win, and they say Scheffler has the best chance.  So, let’s see how good the USGA’s prediction center really is.

If you want to see for yourself, go to the USGA scoring page and click on your favorite player. You’ll see the win probability pop up on the right-hand side of the screen.