Each week I will provide my favorite value plays for the upcoming PGA DraftKings slate.
This week I will highlight my favorite plays for the 2023 Honda Classic.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 Honda Classic: The Chalk
Shane Lowry ($10,400)
DK Ownership 22-26% – Lowry is coming off a good showing at the Genesis where he gained 7.3 strokes tee to green.
He’s played well at the Honda Classic, making the cut in all five appearances. He came 2nd last year and gained just under seven strokes on approach in poor conditions.
Statistically, Lowry makes so much sense for PGA National. He’s 1st on approach, 1st in bogey avoidance, 5th in good drives gained, 4th in sand saves, and 7th from 175-200 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Matt Kuchar ($9,300)
DK Ownership 18-20% – Kuchar has made three of four cuts so far in 2023. He has two top-10 finishes in those four tournaments. He came 7th at the Sony Open and gained 12.6 strokes tee to green last week at the Genesis Invitational; finishing in 8th place.
He’s 1st in scrambling, 2nd in bogey avoidance, and 1st in sand saves over the last 50 rounds. Kuchar is a great putter and Bermuda is his best surface. He’s 3rd in strokes gained putting on Bermuda grass.
2023 Honda Classic: Value Plays
Min Woo Lee ($9,400)
DK Ownership 6-8% – Due to a lack of familiarity, Min Woo Lee will be very low owned compared to his ability.
He’s played well recently with a 13th-place finish in Dubai and a 2nd-place finish in Abu Dhabi. He gained strokes on approach in both tournaments.
He’s finished 13th, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 12th, 8th, 3rd, and 3rd in his last eight events. He actually provides an upside that a number of this week’s higher-priced golfers lack.
Lee Hodges ($7,700)
DK Ownership 15-17% – Hodges had a good showing at the Genesis last week with an 18th-place finish. He gained just under three strokes tee to green and nearly three strokes putting.
He came 9th at the Honda Classic last year gaining three strokes on approach.
He rates out well statistically. He’s 5th in strokes gained approach, 9th in bogey avoidance, and 6th from 175-200 yards over the last 50 rounds. He plays difficult courses well and has also performed in windy conditions.
Charley Hoffman ($7,300)
DK Ownership 6-8% – Hoffman is a value in the salary and ownership department. He hasn’t played the Honda Classic since 2007. He missed the cut that year and came 31st in 2006.
His game should fit PGA National. He’s 15th in bogey avoidance, 9th in sand saves, and 11th from 175-200 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Hoffman also looked good at the WM Phoenix Open gaining 3.5 strokes on approach en route to a 14th-place finish. He’s also 10th from tee to green and 9th in ball striking over the last 24 rounds.
Mark Hubbard ($7,000)
DK Ownership 6-8% – Hubbard is at a great price relative to this field. He’s made the cut at the Honda Classic three years in a row finishing 15th, 46th, and 11th.
Hubbard is 2nd in strokes gained approach and 1st from 150-175 yards over the last 50 rounds.