Each week I will provide my favorite value plays for the upcoming PGA DraftKings slate.
This week I will provide my favorite value plays for the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: The Chalk
Rory Mcllroy ($10,600)
DK Ownership: 26-28% – To say Rory is comfortable at Bay Hill is an understatement. Rory has made the cut eight straight times at the Arnold Palmer since 2015. He’s never finished worse than 27th and won in 2018. He also had four straight top 6 finishes from 2017-2020.
At the API in 2017, he gained the 2nd most strokes on approach he’s ever gained in any tournament. In 2018 when he won, he gained 10 strokes putting which is by far the most of his career. It’s safe to say he likes it here.
Rory is 1st from tee to green, 6th off the tee, and 5th in DraftKings scoring over the last 24 rounds.
Collin Morikawa ($9,500)
DK Ownership: 16-18% – Morikawa has made the cut in his only two appearances at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. He came 64th back in 2018 and 9th in 2020.
He’s 4th on approach, 5th from tee to green, 7th on approach shots over 200 yards, and 2nd in good drives gained over the last 24 rounds.
Collin has 2nd place, 3rd place, and 6th place finishes so far this year. He generally finishes well when he putts well which has been sporadic throughout his career. He’s gained strokes putting in three of four tournaments already this year.
With his ball-striking prowess, he will absolutely win a tournament soon if he continues putting this well.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational: Value Plays
Patrick Cantlay ($9,100)
DK Ownership: 8-10% – Cantlay will be lower owned due to where he’s priced and a lack of course history.
His recent form is good. He’s coming off a 3rd place finish at the Genesis where he gained 13 strokes from tee to green.
Cantlay rates out very well statistically for Bay Hill. He’s 3rd in opportunities gained, 6th in scrambling, 7th on approach shots from over 200 yards, and 12th in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds.
Chris Kirk ($7,700)
DK Ownership: 11-13% – Kirk has been on fire to start 2023. He has three top-three finishes including his win last week at the Honda Classic.
He’s gained over four strokes on approach in all three of those tournaments. Last week was the most strokes on approach he’s gained since 2018.
Kirk also has a great track record at the Arnold Palmer Invitational; making the cut in 7 of his 10 appearances. He’s finished 5th, 8th, 15th, and 13th in his last four tournaments at Bay Hill.
Seamus Power ($7,400)
DK Ownership: 4-6% – People seem to have forgotten how good Power has been this year. He’ll be low-owned this week despite finishes of 14th, 20th, 15th, and 25th this year. He hasn’t missed a cut since October of last year.
Power is good in the wind, around the green, and putting. He’s gained strokes around and on the greens in 10 straight tournaments.
He missed the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year. He was 8 over on Thursday but bounced back to shoot even par in round two. While that may not seem significant, keep in mind that 74% of the field shot over par on Friday.
Tom Hoge ($7,300)
DK Ownership: 8-10% – Hoge is coming off a 14th-place finish at the Genesis where he was consistent in all facets of the game; especially putting.
He’s had decent results at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, making the cut 3 of 4 times with finishes of 32nd,15th, and 26th.
Hoge is 3rd in strokes gained approach, 11th in opportunities gained, 13th in good drives gained, and 15th on approach shots from over 200 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Charley Hoffman ($6,300)
DK Ownership: 5% – Hoffman missed the cut on the number last week at the Honda Classic. His game was actually pretty strong but he lost 3.6 strokes putting.
Charley played well previously at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, finishing in 14th place.
He’s been pretty good at the Arnold Palmer, making the cut four of his last five times. He has finishes of 10th, 13th, 14th, and 2nd place at Bay Hill.