Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming PGA DFS slate.
This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 PLAYERS Championship.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 PLAYERS Championship: Favorite Chalk Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($10,600)
DK Ownership: 16-18% – Scheffler hasn’t been great in two appearances at the PLAYERS Championship coming 55th last year and missing the cut the previous year. I’ll give him a pass last year due to the weather and delays.
Statistically, he’s a strong fit for TPC Sawgrass. He’s 3rd in bogey avoidance, 4th in opportunities gained, 5th in good drives gained, and 8th on approach over the last 50 rounds.
So far in 2023, Scottie already has a win at the WM Phoenix Open. He’s played five tournaments and has three top-10 finishes and hasn’t finished worse than 12th.
Jason Day ($8,000)
DK Ownership: 20-22% – Day won THE PLAYERS Championship back in 2016 and had made the cut here five straight times prior to last year.
He’s looked incredible so far this year. He’s played in five tournaments and has three top-10 finishes. He’s gained strokes off the tee in all five tournaments.
Day is 3rd in total strokes gained, 2nd in strokes gained putting, and 1st in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds.
2023 PLAYERS Championship: Favorite Dark Horses
Jordan Spieth ($8,700)
DK Ownership: 6-8% – This comes with some risk considering the rumblings of a back injury for Spieth but as a result, he will be low-owned.
Spieth has a 4th place and 6th place finish in his last three tournaments. He gained strokes on approach in all three. They are impressive finishes considering he hasn’t been putting well.
Spieth hasn’t played well at TPC Sawgrass, missing the cut in three of his last four trips here. I like his chances of competing better this time considering how well he’s been hitting his irons.
Si Woo Kim ($7,600)
DK Ownership: 13-15% – Si Woo has a great track record on Pete Dye-designed courses. He won THE PLAYERS Championship back in 2017. He came 9th here in 2021.
He’s gained strokes off the tee in all but one of his appearances at TPC Sawgrass.
Si Woo already has a win to his credit this year. He also has three other top-25 finishes so far in 2023.
He’s 3rd in bogey avoidance, 3rd in sand saves, and 20th in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds.
Keith Mitchell ($7,400)
DK Ownership: 13-14% – Mitchell is underpriced relative to his recent form. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five starts. He came 5th at the Genesis and 4th at Pebble Beach.
He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight straight tournaments and he’s 1st in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds.
Wyndham Clark ($7,100)
DK Ownership: 7-9% – Clark hasn’t missed a cut since the 2nd week of October last year. His best finish this year was a 10th-place result at the WM Phoenix Open last month.
Clark has gained strokes on approach in eight of his last nine tournaments.
He’s 9th in strokes gained approach and 6th in DraftKings scoring over the last 24 rounds.
Webb Simpson ($6,800)
DK Ownership: 5-7% – Webb has shown some flashes of his former self recently. He had a nice finish last week at the Arnold Palmer where he gained 6.7 strokes on approach.
He’s missed the cut the previous two years at THE PLAYERS Championship but came 16th in 2019, won in 2018, and came 16th in 2017.
His recent form paired with his tournament history makes him worth a stab at low salary and ownership.