Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming PGA DFS slate.
This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 Valspar Championship
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 Valspar Championship: Favorite Chalk Plays
Jordan Spieth ($10,600)
DK Ownership: 20-22% – Other than the Genesis where the putter failed him, Spieth has looked good over the last month. He came 19th last week at the PLAYERS, 4th at the Arnold Palmer, and 6th at the Waste Management.
He’s been great with his irons gaining strokes on approach in four straight tournaments. He’s 15th in strokes gained approach and 4th from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds.
Spieth missed the cut at the Valspar Championship in 2018 but seems to be a fit for the Copperhead Course. He came 18th in 2016, won the Valspar in 2015, and came 20th in 2014.
Justin Suh ($8,900)
DK Ownership: 20-22% – Suh has played very well during the Florida swing. He came in 5th place at the Honda, 24th at the Arnold Palmer, and 6th last week at the PLAYERS.
Suh has gained strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He’s 6th in strokes gained approach, 2nd on par 3s from 200-225 yards, and 4th in good drives gained over the last 24 rounds.
2023 Valspar Championship: Favorite Dark Horses
Jhonattan Vegas ($7,700)
DK Ownership: 10-12% – Vegas has made the cut the last two years at the Valspar Championship. He came 27th last year gaining five strokes on approach.
Vegas missed the cut last week at the PLAYERS but has been good otherwise in 2023. He has three top-25 finishes in his five tournaments.
He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight straight tournaments. He’s 2nd in strokes gained off the tee and 7th in par 5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.
Nate Lashley ($7,600)
DK Ownership: 8-10% – Lashley is playing well so far in 2023. He’s made the cut in five of six tournaments and has gained strokes on approach in five of six as well. He came 3rd at the Puerto Rico Open, 20th at the Genesis, and 7th at the Sony.
He came 27th at the Valspar Championship last year gaining strokes off the tee and on approach.
He’s 2nd in good drives gained, 2nd on approaches from 175-200 yards, and 11th in par 5 scoring over the last 24 rounds.
Ben Martin ($7,400)
DK Ownership: 8-10% – Martin played ok at the PLAYERS but previously came 5th at the Honda and 13th at Pebble Beach.
His irons have carried him recently. He’s 7th on approach and 13th from 175-200 yards over the last 24 rounds.
He’s made the cut his last two times at the Valspar and gained four strokes on approach here last year.
Tyler Duncan ($7,300)
DK Ownership: 6-8% – Duncan has gained strokes off the tee in four straight tournaments. He’s gained at least 4 strokes off the tee in his last two tournaments.
Duncan is 1st in good drives gained and 7th in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds.
He’s made three straight cuts coming 54th at the PLAYERS, but 3rd at the Honda and 33rd at the Genesis. He’s played well the last two times at the Valspar Championship coming 25th and 39th.