RBC Heritage Dark Horses: Can Shane close at Harbour Town?
By Derek Helm
Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate.
This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 RBC Heritage.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 RBC Heritage: Favorite Chalk Plays
Collin Morikawa ($10,000)
DK Ownership: 20% – Morikawa came in 26th place last year at the RBC Heritage and 7th in 2021.
His game is certainly a fit for Harbour Town. He’s 1st in good drives gained and 2nd in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds.
He’s 10th in par 4 scoring and 4th in approach shots from 175-200 yards over the last 24 rounds.
Morikawa has missed two cuts this year but otherwise hasn’t finished any worse than 13th. He’s riding good form after a 10th place finish at the Masters.
Shane Lowry ($8,300)
DK Ownership: 20% – Lowry has played very well at Harbour Town in the past. He missed the cut in 2020 but otherwise has come in 3rd place twice and also 9th place in 2021.
Last year at the RBC Heritage, Lowry gained 8.4 strokes on approach which is the most of his career.
He’s 7th in strokes gained approach and 10th in opportunities gained over the last 50 rounds. He’s also 8th in good drives gained over the last 24 rounds.
Trending. 2023 RBC Heritage Power Rankings. light
2023 RBC Heritage: Dark Horse Plays
Russell Henley ($7,800)
DK Ownership: 8% – Henley played well last week coming 4th at the Masters. He previously came 19th at the PLAYERS Championship.
He’s 3rd in good drives gained, 14th in opportunities gained, and 16th in bogey avoidance over the last 50 rounds.
Henley has missed the cut three times here but came 9th in 2021 and Bermuda is by far his best-putting surface.
Webb Simpson ($7,400)
DK Ownership: 6% – Webb has a great track record at the RBC Heritage. He won in 2020 and has only missed one cut here in 13 appearances.
He’s gained the most strokes at Harbour Town over the last five years and the 2nd most strokes on Pete Dye courses over the last 50 rounds.
Webb has played much better recently finishing 7th at the Valspar Championship and 24th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Mastercard.
J.T. Poston ($7,300)
DK Ownership: 14% – Poston has the 4th most total strokes gained at Harbour Town over the last five years. He missed the cut in 2021 but has top 10 finishes in all three of his other appearances here including a 3rd place last year.
Poston had a good start to 2023 finishing 21st, 21st, and 6th. He then missed three of his next four cuts.
He’s turned it around recently and is coming off a 34th place finish at the Masters and a 10th place finish at the Valspar.
He gained 5.4 strokes on approach at the Valspar which is his highest total year to date.
Ben Martin ($7,100)
DK Ownership: 10% – Martin has made the cut six of the eight times he’s played here with a 3rd place in 2014 being his best finish at Harbour Town.
Martin has finished top 10 in his last two tournaments. He gained just under 10 strokes from tee to green at the Valero Texas Open.
He’s 5th in good drives gained, 12th on approach, 13th in par 4 scoring, and 17th in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds.
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Tyler Duncan ($6,800)
DK Ownership: 8% – Duncan has missed the cut twice at Harbour Town but also has two good showings. He came 12th here last year and 28th in 2020.
Duncan has gained strokes off the tee in seven straight tournaments. He’s 1st in good drives gained over the last 24 rounds.