2023 Mexico Open Dark Horses: Take on Finau and Rahm?

Tony Finau, 2023 Masters, Augusta National,(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Tony Finau, 2023 Masters, Augusta National,(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) /

Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. 

This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 Mexico Open.

A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.

We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.

I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.

*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.

2023 Mexico Open: Favorite Chalk Plays

Jon Rahm ($12,000)
DK Ownership: 45%

Tony Finau ($9,700)
DK Ownership: 35%

One look at this field and it’s very clear that Rahm and Finau are in a league of their own. They are far and away the best golfers in the field and I’ll play them despite a high ownership. I will start about 85% of my lineups with one of them and get different elsewhere.

2023 Mexico Open: Dark Horse Plays

Wyndham Clark ($9,700)

DK Ownership: 20-22% – Clark looks to be a great statistical fit for Vidanta. He’s 1st in par 5 scoring, 5th in par 4 scoring, 3rd in driving distance, 3rd in birdies or better, 7th in opportunities gained, 8th in strokes gained approach, and 10th on approaches over 200 yards.

Clark has also played well over the last month with two top-10 finishes at the Valspar and Corales.

He’s gained strokes on approach in 10 of the last 12 tournaments. He’s also gained strokes putting in five straight events.

Ben Martin ($8,600)

DK Ownership: 14-16% – Martin has played well recently finishing top 10 in three of his last six tournaments. He’s gained on approach in six of his last seven tournaments.

Martin is 5th in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in strokes gained approach, 5th in birdies or better, 5th in opportunities gained, and 3rd in par 4 scoring over the last 24 rounds.

Stephan Jaeger ($8,200)

DK Ownership: 14-16% – Jaeger finished 15th last year at the Mexico Open. Paspalum greens are by far his best putting surface.

He’s been good this year but did miss the cut most recently at the RBC Heritage. He came 27th, 44th, 14th, and 40th in his previous four tournaments, gaining strokes on approach in all four.

Jaeger is 16th in strokes gained off the tee and 20th in par 4 scoring over the last 24 rounds.

Nate Lashley ($7,700)

DK Ownership: 8-10% – Lashley came 11th last year at the Mexico Open. He gained six strokes putting which may seem like an anomaly but could point to him being comfortable on Paspalum greens.

Lashley has some good finishes this year. He came 7th at the Sony Open, 20th at the Genesis Invitational, and 3rd in Puerto Rico. He finished 31st most recently at the RBC Heritage.

He’s 5th in par 5 scoring, 12th on approach, 12th on approaches over 200 yards, and 11th in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds.

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Andrew Novak ($7,300)

DK Ownership: 5-7% – Novak doesn’t look great statistically but he has made seven of his last eight cuts and came 9th most recently at the Valero Texas Open.

He finished 15th at the Mexico Open at Vidanta last year gaining 6.8 strokes on approach.