Projecting Friday’s Cutline: 18th hole mishap could cost Spieth

Wells Fargo Championship: Why his mishap on the 18th hole at Quail Hollow could cost Jordan Spieth dearly. 

Thanks to an uncharacteristic mishap on the 18th hole of his opening round at this year’s Wells Fargo Championship, Jordan Spieth has plenty left to do if he is to fulfill his aspirations of being around for the weekend.

Spieth was within four shots of early leader Tommy Fleetwood as he made his way to the 18th tee box. Fleetwood holds the lead heading into Friday after tieing his career-best opening round on the PGA Tour with a 6-under 65.

Fast forward to the end of his round and the Texan now finds himself seven shots back after a costly triple-bogey down the last. Spieth hit his tee shot on the Par 4 closing hole at Quail Hollow into the penalty area and then proceeded to rinse his third as well with the effort coming up short of the green.

Is Jordan Spieth in danger of missing the cut?

The triple down the last could prove to be extremely costly when all is said and done and Spieth will need to rebound quickly on Friday if he is to stick around for the weekend.

Jordan isn’t the only big star with work left to do on Friday, however. 2018 Wells Fargo Champion, Jason Day, has been playing some great golf in 2023 with four top-10 finishes already. But the Australian will need a solid round on Friday as well after opening with a 1-over 72.

Joining the group of players at +1 is the 2019 Open Champion, Shane Lowry. Meanwhile, the 2021 Open Champion and two-time major winner, Collin Morikawa, has even more work to do following his opening 2-over 73.

While Jordan Spieth and others may be fighting to just make the cut at the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship, there are plenty of other stars in contention early. Birthday boy, Rory McIlroy, signed off with an opening 3-under 68 with the Northern Irishman making his return to action for the first time since missing the cut at the Masters. 

Xander Schauffele led throughout a good portion of his opening round and at one point had gotten to 7-under before two bogeys across his final three holes dropped him one shot off the pace.

All three of Patrick Cantlay, Sahith Theegala, and Tom Kim all find themselves within a handful of shots of Fleetwood’s lead as well heading into Friday.

Projecting Friday’s Wells Fargo Championship Cutline

Jordan Spieth, Shane Lowry, and Collin Morikawa all have work to do if they hope to be around this weekend at Quail Hollow. But what score will they need to post on Friday in order to feel confident about their chances?

Data Golf has this week’s probable cutline currently at E (42.8%). The projected cut moving to -1 is currently given about a 27% chance, marginally higher than the cut mark falling back to +1 (20.7%).

As things stand, both Jordan Spieth and Shane Lowry would need at minimum a round of 70 or better on Friday to have a chance of sticking around for the weekend. Morikawa would need to fire off a 2-under 69 in order to give himself a chance.

Jordan Spieth would have been at least two shots on the right side of this week’s projected cutline had he managed to just Par the 18th, instead, his mishap down the last could prove to be costly indeed.