2023 AT&T Byron Nelson: Top 10 Power Rankings in Texas

Scottie Scheffler’s record at TPC Craig Ranch is a little surprising. He’s made the cut in both trips, but has yet to contend.

The Dallas native finished T-47th (67-70-68-73) at the 2021 AT&T Byron Nelson. Scheffler improved to T-15th (67-68-65-69) last year.

I expect another big leap at this event.

Jon Rahm has been the best player in the world by a solid margin so far in 2023. Scottie Scheffler is the clear No. 2 with a sizable gap between the rest of the competition. Even the consensus No. 3, Rory McIlroy.

Rahm and McIlroy are both absent this week, as are many other big names who are already prepping for the PGA Championship.

Scheffler should feast this week. He’s in his home metro with the fans on his side. He comes in rested after skipping last week’s designated event, the Wells Fargo Championship.

The 26-year-old University of Texas alum is already a two-time winner this season at the WM Phoenix Open and Players Championship.

Scheffler’s been ultra-consistent, finishing T-12th or better in 12 straight events dating back to the 2022 CJ Cup in October.

He leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained per round tee-to-green (2.270), SG off-the-tee (1.029), and greens in regulation (73.99%).

What could hurt Scheffler’s case this week is that the fairways are almost too wide, negating his advantage of being incredibly accurate, given his length off the tee.

The greens are not overly difficult and Scheffler has spent tons of time on bentgrass. He’s been exactly a net zero in strokes gained putting this season, ranking 99th.

If he can just be top-15 or top-20 in putting against a weak field this week, Scheffler’s ball striking could lift him to victory.

The only man I see standing in his way is his friend and fellow Longhorn.