5 Dark Horses worth monitoring at the 105th PGA Championship
By Derek Helm
Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 PGA Championship.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 PGA Championship: Favorite Chalk Plays
Tony Finau ($9,500)
DK Ownership: 20-22% – Finau has previous success at a Donald Ross-designed course winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic last year.
He’s played well recently, obviously, winning in Mexico at Vidanta Vallarta. He’s averaged 9.8 strokes from tee to green over his last three tournaments.
Finau is 5th in strokes gained approach, 16th from off the tee, 7th in bogey avoidance, and 10th on par fours between 450-500 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Sungjae Im ($9,000)
DK Ownership: 16-18% – Oak Hill will test every facet of a golfers game and Sungjae is very well-rounded.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s 5th in strokes gained from off the tee, 4th in fairways gained, and 8th in bogey avoidance. He’s also 9th in sand saves and 16th in SG: around the green over the last 50 rounds.
He just won last week in Korea and should come in with a ton of confidence.
2023 PGA Championship: 5 Dark Horse Plays
1. Max Homa ($8,700)
DK Ownership: 12-14% – Homa came 13th at last year’s PGA Championship and has played well at many top-tier tournaments including wins at both the Farmers and Genesis.
Homa isn’t incredible in any one statistic but is good in most of the preferred metrics for Oak Hill.
He’s 11th in strokes gained approach, 23rd from off the tee, 7th in scrambling, 20th from approaches of over 200 yards, and 6th on par fours between 450-500 yards over the last 50 rounds.
2. Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000)
DK Ownership: 13-15% – Fleetwood is in great form coming in with finishes of 5th at the Wells Fargo, 15th at Heritage, 33rd at the Masters, and 3rd at the Valspar.
He’s gained over 8 strokes from tee to green in two of his last four tournaments and has gained strokes on approach in every tournament this year.
He’s 5th in strokes gained around the green and 15th in strokes gained approach over the last 50 rounds.
3. Justin Rose ($7,700)
DK Ownership: 12-14% – Rose is another golfer in good form especially when considering his finishes in two of the bigger tournaments this year. He came 16th at the Masters and 6th at the PLAYERS Championship.
Rose also has a win under his belt back in February at Pebble Beach. He’s gained strokes on approach in eight straight tournaments.
Rose is 7th in sand saves, 4th in approaches from 150-175 yards, 7th on par fours between 450-500 yards, and 20th in fairways gained over the last 50 rounds.
4. Chris Kirk ($7,000)
DK Ownership: 5-7% – Kirk has some good results in Majors recently finishing 23rd this year at the Masters and 5th at the PGA Championship last year.
He’s gained strokes off the tee in four of his last five tournaments. He’s 4th in strokes gained around the green and 17th in sand saves; both of which will be needed at Oak Hill.
Bentgrass is also his best putting surface.
dark. Next. Rickie Fowler carries momentum into 2023 PGA Championship
5. Matt Kuchar ($6,900)
DK Ownership: 5-7% – The narrative is that you have to have distance at Oak Hill. While it’s definitely an advantage, shorter hitters can still play well if they’re in the fairway.
Kuchar is top 20 in fairways gained over the last 24 rounds. He’s also 2nd in strokes gained around the green, 2nd in sand saves, and 6th in bogey avoidance over that span.