Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate.
This week I will provide an overview of the course before I highlight my favorite Dark Horses and DraftKings plays for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open.
The 2023 RBC Canadian Open will be held at Oakdale Golf & Country Club in Toronto, Ontario. It is a 7,200 yard par 72 with Poa and Bentgrass greens. Oakdale has never hosted a PGA event so there’s no previous data to go off of.
The three separate 9-hole courses will be combined for the Canadian Open. There are 12 par fours, 3 par threes, and 3 par fives.
The course’s only real defense this week is the rough which will play extremely long. Many sloped fairways with elevation changes will make finding fairways the preferred strategy.
There isn’t a ton of length at Oakdale so it’s possible that some golfers might look to mash it off the tee and play a short wedge from the rough. The shorter hitters should, however, have an advantage if they opt for accuracy over length. No matter the strategy, golfers will have to create and capitalize on scoring opportunities. Short wedges and sinking short putts will lead to success.
Many of the greens around Oakdale are elevated and tiered. Golfers will have blind approach shots from below the hole. Hitting the correct tier and avoiding missed greens are certainly required for anyone looking to contend.
2023 RBC Canadian Open: The Key Stats
- Strokes Gained Approach
- Opportunities Gained
- Approaches 75-125 yards
- Par 4 Scoring
Now let’s jump into my favorite DraftKings plays and Dark Horses for the 2023 RBC Canadian Open.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 RBC Canadian Open: Favorite Chalk Plays
Tyrrell Hatton ($10,200)
DK Ownership: 25-28% – Hatton has not lost strokes off the tee since October of last year. He has five straight top-20 finishes including a 5th and 3rd place.
Over the last 50 rounds, Hatton is 1st in good drives gained, 1st in par four scoring, 3rd in birdies or better gained, 8th on approach, and 10th in opportunities gained.
Shane Lowry ($9,400)
DK Ownership: 14-17% – Lowry has played well in Canada his last three times north of the border. Albeit at different courses. He finished 12th in 2018, 2nd in 2019, and 10th last year.
Lowry is 2nd in strokes gained approach, 2nd in opportunities gained, 9th in good drives gained, and 10th on approaches from 100-125 yards over the last 50 rounds.
He’s gained strokes off the tee and on approach in six straight tournaments. He finished 16th last week and 12th at the PGA Championship.
2023 RBC Canadian Open: Dark Horse Plays
Adrian Meronk ($8,600)
DK Ownership: 7-10% – Meronk has been great this year. He’s won twice on the DP World Tour and has five other top-15 finishes.
There aren’t a lot of statistical cases to be made for him since his PGA data is limited, but Meronk is good off the tee and is an above-average putter.
David Lipsky ($7,400)
DK Ownership: 8-11% – Lipsky looks to be a statistical fit for Oakdale. He’s very good with his short wedges, he’s 9th in opportunities gained, 13th on approach, and top 25 in birdies or better gained over the last 50 rounds.
He’s gained strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments. He’s also coming off two good finishes having come 12th at the Memorial Tournament and 16th at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Ben Martin ($7,300)
DK Ownership: 13-16% – Martin looks to make a ton of statistical sense for Oakdale. Over the last 50 rounds, he’s 5th in strokes gained approach, 5th in opportunities gained, 5th on approaches from 75-100 yards, 6th in birdies or better gained, 8th in good drives gained, and 8th on approaches from 125-150 yards.
Martin has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven tournaments and gained 3.5 strokes or more in three of them.
Scott Piercy ($7,100)
DK Ownership: 4-7% – Piercy tends to play much better on easier courses. He’s also been good recently coming 40th at the Charles Schwab and 19th at the Byron Nelson.
He’s gained strokes on approach in five straight tournaments. He’s 1st in birdies or better gained, 16th on approach, and 10th in DraftKings scoring over the last 24 rounds.
He came 21st at the RBC Canadian Open last year; gaining over six strokes from tee to green.