Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 U.S. Open: Favorite Chalk Plays
Scottie Scheffler ($11,400)
DK Ownership: 22-24% – Scottie has been on an incredible run and would have several wins this year if it wasn’t for a terrible putter. He’s only finished outside the top 10 three times this year.
He’s 1st in strokes gained approach, 1st from off the tee, 1st in around the green, 1st in bogey avoidance, and 2nd in good drives gained over the last 50 rounds.
Scottie has come 2nd and 7th at the U.S. Open in the last two years.
Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)
DK Ownership: 15-17% – Hideki has played much better since injury concerns plagued him earlier this year. He came 16th most recently at the Memorial Tournament and actually had a chance to win if it weren’t for a rough stretch on Saturday.
In his last six appearances at the U.S. Open, Hideki has finished 4th, 26th, 17th, 21st, 16th, and 2nd He’s only missed the cut at the U.S. Open once in ten appearances.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s 7th in strokes gained approach, 4th in bogey avoidance, and 11th in good drives gained.
2023 U.S. Open: 5 Dark Horse Plays
1. Collin Morikawa ($9,300)
DK Ownership: 10-12% – Concerns about Morikawa’s back spasms will keep his ownership in check providing a perfect opportunity to use him as leverage in tournaments.
Playing out of the fairway and hitting greens with longer irons will be an advantage at LACC. Collin is 1st in good drives gained, 4th in fairways gained, 2nd in strokes gained approach, and 5th on approaches from 175-200 yards over the last 50 rounds.
Morikawa has finished in 5th place and 4th place over the last two years at the U.S. Open.
2. Wyndham Clark ($7,500)
DK Ownership: 12-14% – Wyndham missed the cut at the PGA Championship but has otherwise been playing very well. He won the Wells Fargo Championship last month and came 12th most recently at the Memorial Tournament.
He’s gained strokes on approach in 11 of his last 12 tournaments. He’s 3rd in strokes gained approach and 2nd in bogey avoidance over the last 24 rounds.
3. Rickie Fowler ($7,500)
DK Ownership: 14-17% – Fowler has been playing incredibly well this year. Other than a missed cut at the PGA Championship, his worst finish is 13th place in his last seven events. He’s coming off a 9th-place finish at the Memorial and a 6th-place finish at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
He’s gained strokes on approach in 15 of his last 16 tournaments. He’s 5th in strokes gained approach, 13th in bogey avoidance, 12th on approaches from 175-200 yards, and 21st in strokes gained around the green over the last 24 rounds.
He hasn’t missed a cut at a U.S. Open since 2016 and Bentgrass is his best putting surface.
4. Si Woo Kim ($7,300)
DK Ownership: 10-13% – Si Woo is playing some of the best golf of his career. He has two top 5 finishes over the last month. He’s gained strokes on approach in five straight events and strokes off the tee in 14 of his last 15 tournaments.
He’s 15th in strokes gained off the tee, 1st in fairways gained, and 8th in good drives gained. Kim is also top 25 in bogey avoidance, strokes gained around the green, and strokes gained approach, over the last 24 rounds.
5. Eric Cole ($7,000)
DK Ownership: 8-10% – In his last seven tournaments, Cole has two missed cuts but otherwise has finished no worse than 24th. He finished 6th last week at the RBC Canadian Open gaining strokes in every metric.
He’s gained strokes on approach in 11 of his last 16 tournaments. Over the last 24 rounds, he’s 3rd in strokes gained around the green, and 11th in bogey avoidance.
Eric Cole has also performed well in his only Major this year coming in 15th place and gaining 8.7 strokes from tee to green at the PGA Championship.