Projecting The U.S. Open Cut; Brutal Finish To Cost Spieth?

Jordan Spieth, 123rd U.S. Open,(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Jordan Spieth, 123rd U.S. Open,(Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images) /

Projecting Friday’s U.S. Open cutline. Will Jordan Spieth’s disastrous finish prove costly? 

With the halfway point of the 123rd U.S. Open on the near horizon, Friday’s cutline picture is becoming ever more clear.

While LACC hasn’t produced the stern test we have become accustomed to throughout the major’s illustrious history, there is still trouble to be found on course if you are even the slightest bit off.

Despite a record-setting day on Thursday that produced one of the lowest average round scores in United States Open history, some big names will still be packing their bags and leaving the property early come the end of Friday’s action.

With the afternoon wave going out late, there is still a lot that can change over the course of the next few hours, yet for some, their chances of sticking around for the weekend are likely gone already.

Disastrous finish to prove costly for Spieth?

Jordan Spieth is always capable of pulling off the miraculous, but following an opening round of 72 at Los Angeles Country Club’s Par 70 layout on a day when a large portion of the field was scoring, Spieth was always going to have his work cut out for him on Friday at this year’s U.S. Open.

Outside of his incredible win at Chambers Bay at the 2015 U.S. Open, Jordan Spieth has had mixed results in ‘Golf’s toughest test’, with the three-time major winner having finished inside of the top 20 on the leaderboard on just two occasions in eleven starts since 2012.

The 29-year-old Texan added four birdies to his second-round card on Friday which looked as though it was going to put him in a decent position to make the cut, even with having dropped two shots across that same span.

But after making the turn in 34 and adding one of the aforementioned birdies on the Par 3, 11th hole at LACC, Spieth had a disastrous finish. He dropped a shot on 13, but the killer blow came on holes 16 and 17 during one of the most difficult stretches of holes on the course.

The three hole closing stretch at LACC is playing over par for the field this week and it was at this point in his second round that Spieth’s errors would prove costly. Errant approach shots on both 16 and 17, and an errant drive on 17, proved too much to overcome for Jordan as he was unable to save par on both holes and dropped two precious shots.

A solid drive on 18 had given him a glimmer of hope of birdieing the challenging last, but an approach into the green that wasn’t quite up to standards, followed by a lengthy putt that failed to find the bottom of the cup leaves Spieth in a precarious position.

The resulting par down the last left Spieth signing off with a Friday-71. He currently sits at +3 for the tournament.

So, the question on everyone’s mind now is, does Spieth have any chance of making the 2023 U.S. Open cut?

What will the cut number at the 2023 U.S. Open be?

With the late wave getting underway and conditions expected to become increasingly difficult, the fine folks at Data Golf currently have an overwhelming favorite for the U.S. Open’s projected cutline.

According to Data Golf, the cutline landing on +2 is currently being given an overwhelming 89.6% chance. With such a likely outcome, the chances of the cut moving to +1 (5.7%) or +3 (4.7%) are marginal at best.

Unfortunately, that’s bad news for Jordan Spieth who as things currently stand, would be leaving the property early this week. In fact, his probability of making the cut is being given less than a 3% chance of coming to fruition according to Data Golf.

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A +2 cut would see names such as Phil Mickelson, and Mito Pereira, whose brutal finish on the 18th cost him a potential PGA Championship win last year, heading home alongside Spieth.

Meanwhile, Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Young, and others would make the cut on the number if the +2 mark does indeed hold.

Jordan has created miraculous moments throughout his phenomenal career to date, now, he is going to need a miracle that is out of his hands in order to stick around at this year’s U.S. Open.