Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and/or lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Favorite Chalk Plays
Rickie Fowler ($10,400)
DK Ownership: 22-25% – Fowler has played all four years at the Rocket Mortgage and last year was the only year he missed the cut. His best finish was 12th in 2020 and he’s gained strokes off the tee in all four appearances here.
Over the last 24 rounds, Fowler is 1st in birdies or better, 2nd in par 5 scoring, 9th in strokes gained approach, and 15th in opportunities gained.
Over his last 9 tournaments, Fowler has missed one cut but otherwise hasn’t finished worse than 15th place. Many of those tournaments were Majors or elevated events as well. He’s gained strokes on approach in four straight with finishes of 13th, 5th, 9th, and 6th place.
Hideki Matsuyama ($9,600)
DK Ownership: 20-22% – I’ve been riding Hideki and I’m not about to jump off now. He’s gained strokes on approach in 13 of his 15 tournaments this year.
Over the last 24 rounds, Matsuyama is 1st in opportunities gained, 2nd in strokes gained approach, and 14th on approaches from 125-150 yards.
He’s finished 13th and 21st in his two appearances at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic: Dark Horse Plays
Byeong Hun An ($8,200)
DK Ownership: 12-14% – Byeong Hun An missed the cut last week at the Travelers Championship but previously finished 24th, 21st, and 14th in his previous three tournaments.
He’s gained strokes off the tee in seven straight tournaments and strokes on approach in four straight.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s 1st in strokes gained off the tee, 2nd in driving distance, and 19th on approach. He’s also top 30 in birdies or better, opportunities gained, and par 5 scoring; which are many of the desired statistics for Detroit Golf Club.
Austin Eckroat ($8,000)
DK Ownership: 16-18% – Eckroat has been playing very well recently. He’s gained strokes off the tee in eight straight tournaments. He has four top-25 finishes in his last five tournaments including a 2nd place finish at the Byron Nelson.
He’s 13th in strokes gained off the tee, 11th in opportunities gained, 10th in par 5 scoring, and 18th in strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds.
Ryan Palmer ($7,200)
DK Ownership: 6-8% – Palmer has been playing well with a missed cut at the Charles Schwab Challenge sandwiched by an 8th at the Byron Nelson and a 33rd last week at the Travelers.
Palmer has gained an average of 6.4 strokes tee to green over his last three tournaments. He’s also gained strokes on approach and off the tee in twelve of his last thirteen tournaments.
Over the last 24 rounds, he’s 9th in strokes gained off the tee, 10th on approach, 7th in opportunities gained, and 10th in par 5 scoring.