Dark Horses Who Can Surprise In The Quad Cities

Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.

A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.

We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.

I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and/or lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.

*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.

2023 John Deere Classic: Favorite Chalk Plays

Adam Schenk ($9,500)

DK Ownership: 18-20% – Schenk has performed well at the John Deere Classic his last two times finishing 4th in 2021 and 6th in 2019.

He finished 7th last week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic gaining eight strokes from tee to green. He missed his previous two cuts but came 7th at the Memorial Tournament and 2nd at the Charles Schwab Challenge prior.

Over the last 24 rounds, Schenk is 5th in strokes gained approach, 4th in birdies or better, 2nd from 175-200 yards, and top 25 in par 5 scoring.

Emiliano Grillo ($9,200)

DK Ownership: 20-22% – Grillo played well here last year, finishing 2nd, and gaining strokes in every category.

He rates out very well statistically for TPC Deere Run. He’s 2nd in birdies or better, 3rd on approach, 3rd in ball striking, and 3rd from 150-175 yards over the last 24 rounds.

He’s a great ball striker but surprisingly has gained strokes with the putter in seven of his last nine tournaments including 7.4 strokes in his win at the Charles Schwab.

2023 John Deere Classic: Dark Horse Plays

Nick Taylor ($8,200)

DK Ownership: 11-13% – We want golfers who have a strong approach game and can hit putts this week. Taylor has gained strokes on approach in six of his last seven tournaments and strokes putting in six of his last seven as well.

Over the last 24 rounds, he’s 7th in opportunities gained, 10th in birdies or better, 12th in par five scoring, and 14th in strokes gained approach.

Mark Hubbard ($7,700)

DK Ownership: 13-15% – We’re getting a salary/ownership discount on Hubbard due to the fact that he’s missed back-to-back cuts.

Prior to last week, he had gained strokes on approach in eight straight tournaments. He’s 2nd in strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds.

He’s gained strokes putting in four of his last five and Bentgrass is by far his best putting surface.

He came 13th last year at the John Deere Classic gaining strokes in every category.

Patton Kizzire ($7,200)

DK Ownership: 6-8% – Kizzire has missed two straight cuts but has gained strokes on approach in four of his last five tournaments.

He’s played well at the John Deere the last two years despite not playing well coming in. Leading up to last year he finished 64th and missed three cuts before finishing 16th here. In 2021 he finished 25th at the Rocket Mortgage but had previously missed three cuts. He then finished in 11th place at the John Deere.

Satoshi Kodaira ($6,800)

DK Ownership: 6-8% – Satoshi has made three cuts in a row. He’s gained strokes on approach in ten of his last twelve tournaments.

He came 30th at the John Deere last year gaining strokes in every category.

Toshi is 4th from 125-150 yards, 10th in opportunities gained, 15th in birdies or better, and top 25 in strokes gained approach over the last 24 rounds.