Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.
We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.
I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and/or lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.
*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.
2023 Open Championship: Favorite Chalk Plays
Rory Mcllroy ($11,900)
DK Ownership: 17-20% – Rory is coming off the win at the Scottish Open and hasn’t finished worse than 9th place in his last six tournaments. He’s gained strokes on approach and off the tee in all six of those tournaments.
He has a great track record at the Open Championship. In 13 appearances, he’s only missed the cut twice and has five top five finishes including his win at this course in 2014. He came in 3rd place last year.
He’s 1st in DraftKings scoring, 2nd tee to green, 3rd in opportunities gained, and 3rd off the tee over the last 50 rounds.
Rickie Fowler ($9,800)
DK Ownership: 17-20% – Fowler has only missed one cut at the Open Championship in 11 appearances. His best finishes were a 5th-place in 2011, a 2nd-place in 2014 (which was played here), and a 6th-place in 2019.
Fowler came 42nd at the Scottish Open after a disastrous 4th round in the wind. In his previous five tournaments, his worst finish was 13th. He came top-10 in the other four including his win at the Rocket Mortgage.
Over the last 50 rounds, Fowler is 3rd in par five scoring, 3rd in strokes gained around the green, and 5th in strokes gained approach.
2023 Open Championship: DFS Dark Horse Plays
Collin Morikawa ($9,600)
DK Ownership: 13-16% – Morikawa already has an Open Championship win on his resume. He won at Royal St. George’s in 2021.
Morikawa comes here in great form. He’s gained strokes on approach in all but one tournament dating back to last year’s Open Championship. He’s gained strokes off the tee in five straight tournaments and is coming off a loss in a playoff at the Rocket Mortgage.
Over the last 50 rounds, Morikawa is 2nd in strokes gained approach, 5th in fairways gained, 6th in opportunities gained, and 9th in par five scoring.
Talor Gooch ($7,800)
DK Ownership: 8-11% – Gooch has finished 34th and 33rd the last two years at the Open Championship. He’s also played well at Majors with a 34th and 14th place finish in his last two Masters appearances and a 20th last year at the PGA Championship.
Gooch has also played well on the LIV tour with three wins already this year including at the Valderrama two weeks ago.
He’s a good ball striker who’s good around the greens and can also avoid three putts. All of which are skills needed for this tournament.
Brian Harman ($7,300)
DK Ownership: 10-12 % – Harman has finished 6th and 19th in his last two Open Championships. He also came 26th here back in 2014.
Harman has some good finishes coming in. He finished T12 at the Scottish Open despite shooting four over on Sunday. He previously finished 9th at the Rocket Mortgage and 2nd at the Travelers. He’s also gained strokes on approach in four straight tournaments.
Chris Kirk ($7,000)
DK Ownership: 6-8% – Kirk came 19th at Royal Liverpool in 2014. He also has played fairly well at Majors this year finishing 23rd at the Masters, and 29th at the PGA. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open.
He’s in good form again after he fell into a bit of a slump following his win back in February. He’s finished 21st and 14th in his last two tournaments gaining strokes off the tee and on approach in both tournaments.
Kirk is 8th in strokes gained around the green, 9th in opportunities gained, 13th in sand saves, and 15th in scrambling over the last 50 rounds.
Louis Oosthuizen ($6,900)
DK Ownership: 7-10% – Louis has been playing well lately. He came 4th last week in London, preceded by finishes of 23rd, 6th, 23rd, 16th, and 11th in his last 6 tournaments. He also won earlier in the year in Tucson. He’s an accurate driver of the ball with a good short game and links experience.
He missed the cut last year at the Open but came 3rd in 2021 which was his third top-3 finish at the Open including his win in 2010.