2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Top Sleeper Picks And Dark Horses

Each week I will provide my favorite chalk and Dark Horse plays for the upcoming DraftKings DFS slate. This week I will highlight my favorite DraftKings plays for the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship.

A value play is determined by a golfer being underpriced or coming in at lower ownership. I’ll also establish who will be the most rostered on the slate; also known as the “chalk”.

We always want to play the best plays but need leverage as well. Determining the difference between good “chalk” (highly owned) and bad “chalk” is essential.

I’ll list which of the high-owned golfers I like the most this week. Pairing those plays with lower-owned and/or lower-priced golfers (Dark Horses) is the optimal way to build and gives us the best route to winning a DraftKings contest.

*Ownership projections are estimates and will vary from contest to contest. The percentage provided is in regard to guaranteed prize pools on DraftKings.

2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Favorite Chalk Plays

Collin Morikawa ($9,000)

DK Ownership: 18-20% – Morikawa has played well here in the past with a 5th-place finish last year, and 26th and 20th the previous two years. He’s gained at least three strokes on approach in all three appearances.

Morikawa has everything statistically that you would want for TPC Southwind. Over the last 50 rounds, he’s 2nd in strokes gained approach, 3rd in strokes gained ball striking, 5th in fairways gained, 8th from 175-200 yards, 10th from 150-175 yards, and 3rd on par fours 400-450 yards.

Lucas Glover ($7,400)

DK Ownership: 17-20% – Glover has been one of the hottest golfers on the planet and is coming off a win at the Wyndham Championship where he gained over nine strokes on approach. He missed the cut at the 3M Open but otherwise hasn’t finished worse than 6th place in his last five tournaments.

Over the last 24 rounds, Glover is 3rd in strokes gained approach, 2nd in fairways gained, 4th in opportunities gained, 8th off the tee, and 4th in par four scoring.

He’s gained confidence with his putter which is scary considering how good of a ball striker he is.

2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship: Dark Horse Plays

Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,600)

DK Ownership: 9-11% – Fitzpatrick hasn’t really done anything spectacular this year but has played very well at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in the past.

He finished in 5th place last year. He also came 6th in 2020 and 4th in 2019. He’s gained strokes off the tee in all five of his appearances at TPC Southwind.

Bermuda greens are Fitzpatrick’s best putting surface by far and he gained a career-high 10 strokes putting here in 2020.

Sam Burns ($8,100)

DK Ownership: 14-17% – Burns is very boom/bust and won’t look great statistically. We do know that his spike weeks pay off big time and I’m willing to bank on that this week.

He has played very well at TPC Southwind. He finished 2nd here in 2021 gaining 4.4 strokes on approach. Last year he finished 20th place and also gained 4.4 strokes on approach.

He has two top 20 finishes in his last three tournaments and Bermuda is by far his best putting surface.

Byeong Hun An ($7,500)

DK Ownership: 12-15% – An came 12th at the FedEx St. Jude back in 2020 gaining strokes in every category.

He’s been playing great recently with a top-25 and two top-three finishes including 2nd last week at the Wyndham where he gained over five strokes on approach and putting.

Over the last 24 rounds, An is 5th in strokes gained off the tee, 10th in bogey avoidance, 10th in scrambling, and top 15 in par four scoring.

J.T. Poston ($7,300)

DK Ownership: 11-13% – Poston is another golfer who comes into the week in incredible form. He has four top-ten finishes in his last five tournaments. He’s finished 7th and 2nd in his last two and gained an average of 5.15 strokes on approach in those tournaments.

He finished 20th at the St. Jude last year and 30th in 2020. He seems to have a good feel for these greens gaining strokes putting in both appearances.

On a course with trouble everywhere, it’s nice to know Poston is 1st in scrambling and 14th in bogey avoidance. He’s also 7th in par four scoring over the last 24 rounds.