The 2023 PGA Tour season: Approach, as always, is key to success
By Bill Felber
Around The Green
Historically, play around the green has been a statistically less important skill on Tour. Since 2004, the average correlation between a player’s skill around the green and his score is only -.399, which is dramatically weaker than the historical -.684 correlation for the approach game
But that turned around in 2023. In this just-concluded PGA Tour season, the correlation broke through the -.500 barrier. That’s the strongest correlation for this skill in the history of Strokes Gained data.
It was 3.3 points stronger than the -.467 percent correlation last season, and marked the third consecutive season in which this correlation strengthened.
We do, however, see a markedly more random performance element than was the case in the approach data. Only one member of the top 20 in stroke average also ranks among the top 10 in Strokes Gained Around the Green.
It also continues to be true, as has generally been the case throughout the Strokes Gained era, that the average potential gain through superiority around the green simply doesn’t measure up to the potential for improvement in the other three areas.
It’s the only one of the four categories in which no player picked up at least one stroke on the field; in fact, the leader barely made up half that much.
Here is the top 10
- Jonathan Byrd (0.525)
- Aaron Baddeley (0.475)
- Brendon Todd (0.459)
- Justin Thomas (0.411)
- Byeong Hun An (0.405)
- Scottie Scheffler (0.400)
- Stephan Jaeger (0.390)
- Matt Kuchar (0.381)
- Mackenzie Hughes (0.376)
- Alex Noren (0.368)
Despite the relative strength of the overall correlation, this is not – top to bottom – an especially imposing list.
Scheffler is on it, but he’s the only member of the top 20 in scoring average who also stood out in his recovery play. Byrd ranked 137th in stroke average, and the top 10 as a group ranked only 58th.