2025 BMW Championship power rankings: Who will make it to East Lake?

We are now smack in the middle of the FedEx Cup playoffs, as we make our way to Caves Valley for the BMW Championship.
BMW Championship flag
BMW Championship flag | Stacy Revere/GettyImages

And then, there were 50.

Following Justin Rose's dramatic playoff victory at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the PGA Tour now heads to the Mid-Atlantic for the second event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the BMW Championship.

Before we move on, however, a brief word on the St. Jude. Tommy Fleetwood's collapse at TPC Southwind was sadly the most predictable outcome, and at this point, I think it is more likely than not that Fleetwood goes his entire PGA Tour career without a win.

I don't know what else to say at this point, but he's lost in all ways and just seems like he can't get out of his own head. I hope I'm wrong, but it feels unlikely right now.

With that being said, let's move on.

The BMW returns to Caves Valley for the first time since 2021, where we saw Patrick Cantlay outduel Bryson DeChambeau. The course has been renovated since, changing to a par-70 and stretching out to 7,601 yards.

Much like the last go-round, driving distance is going to help a ton this week for the eventual winner, especially with some of the birdie opportunities being taken off the scorecard. We came so close last week with J.J. Spaun, but good on Rose pulling his back-nine magic again on Sunday and taking the win.

Let's see what we can find this week. We've only got three honorable mentions this week with the 49-man field (Sepp Straka has withdrawn due to a family matter), and there will be none next week for the Tour Championship because of the small field size.

Honorable Mentions: Ryan Fox, Chris Gotterup, Matt Fitzpatrick

9. Harry Hall

Harry Hall has now finished inside the top 25 in nine of his last 10 starts, and a poor Friday in Memphis kept Hall from having a stronger finish last week.

Caves Valley may be a bit of a tougher test for him, given the length of the course. However, Hall does still lead the Tour in birdie average, with over 4.5 birdies per round. Especially when dealing with a big ballpark, you need to not be afraid to try and go low.

I think Hall is built perfectly to make a run here this week, and possibly try to catch the eye of Luke Donald for that last spot on the European Ryder Cup team.

8. Ben Griffin

A T9 finish last week not only solidified Ben Griffin's bounce-back from a bit of a downturn, but it also locked in his spot on the team at Bethpage Black. What made me most excited from last week is that Griffin performed well, even with his driver not quite returning to pre-hot streak form.

When the driver kicks on, Griffin is a genuine threat in any field. The rest of his game is still operating at a high level, and he should be able to let the driver rip all over the course and make his way up the leaderboard.

7. Ludvig Aberg

Am I disappointed in Ludvig's season as a whole? Yes, definitely. But, he's been able to piece together three straight strong performances, and at a course where distance off the tee plays big time, Aberg is peaking at the right time for this week.

Of course, this is the Swede's first time seeing Caves Valley in tournament play, but considering how solid he was during his rookie year and seeing all of those courses for the first time, I'm not worried about that at all.

This is the best I have felt in a while about Aberg, and his style of play lines up perfectly for a course like Caves Valley, so don't be surprised to see his name come Sunday.

6. Patrick Cantlay

Look, I still don't think Patrick Cantlay should be on the Ryder Cup team this year, but I would be remiss not to mention the guy who stared down Bryson the last time we were at Caves Valley.

Cantlay did play very well last week in Memphis, putting up his best strokes gained approach performance of the season. Even though he has been far from the model of consistency this season, the 2021 FedEx Cup champion seems ready to break out and truly contend for his first win of the season this week.

5. Xander Schauffele

For a moment, it looked a little dicey as to whether or not Xander would even make the field this week at Caves Valley. As it stands right now, Schauffele is well outside of the top 30, and is in a lot of danger to miss the Tour Championship for the first time in his PGA Tour career.

This same situation occurred in 2018, where Xander played his way into Atlanta with a T3 at the BMW that year to make the top 30. If there's any player on Tour who can pull off the jump needed, it's this guy.

4. Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas has definitely cooled off a bit since his win at the RBC Heritage, but he's still playing at his highest level since his peak years. At least not in the majors, that is.

If Thomas wants to find more victories out on the course, he may need to return to his grip-it-and-rip-it style of play that described the earlier parts of his career. JT played somewhat well at Caves Valley last time around, and I wouldn't be surprised by an improvement on his T22 from four years ago this week.

3. Cameron Young

After a strong follow-up to his first career victory last week, Cameron Young has played himself into strong consideration for the U.S. Ryder Cup team, with the main reason being that he has finally figured out the putter.

Young's ball striking has never really been an issue, but now that he can get the ball in the hole, his game may be unlocking a new level. The Bronx Bomber's distance off the tee will be a major reason for his success this week, and I think he'll be able to keep up with the big names yet again.

2. Rory McIlroy

After taking the first week of the FedEx Cup playoffs off, McIlroy fell all the way in the rankings from second to...second.

Honestly, he could've taken this week off as well and been absolutely fine going to East Lake. McIlroy is one of the few who played at Caves Valley in 2021, where he finished solo fourth.

After his missed cut in Canada, McIlroy has finished in the top 20 in all four of his subsequent starts. Rory is back, he's going for win number four on the year, and he's the guy most poised to unseat Scottie Scheffler for the FedEx Cup this season. I wouldn't be shocked if Rory cuts into the gap at the top.

1. Scottie Scheffler

Let's be real: Scottie probably should have won in Memphis, but he just couldn't make any of his big putts on Sunday. It felt like Scottie's starts at the beginning of the year when he was coming back from his hand injury, where he'd hang around but not quite be able to finish the job on Sunday.

The last-minute caddie switch definitely did not help, and if Ted Scott isn't back on the bag this week, you could talk me into swapping Rory and Scottie in these rankings. But at the end of the day, he's Scottie. He'll be right there on Sunday regardless.