2025 Masters power rankings: Can Rory McIlroy finally win a green jacket?

The best week of the professional golf calendar is upon us, and this year's Masters is setting up to be an all-timer. Who's going to end this week donning the green jacket in Butler Cabin?
Rory McIlroy
Rory McIlroy | Jonathan Bachman/GettyImages

Fellow patrons, we have finally made it to Masters week.

One of the only weeks of the year where the golfing world is truly unified, The Masters remains as timeless and essential as ever, and Augusta National Golf Club remains a place where every hole comes with its memories.

Simply put, The Masters is the highlight of the golf calendar and is genuinely in a class all its own.

For such a special occasion, I changed up my usual process for building the rankings. This week, I came up with a four-color system for every player in the field, from red (won't win) to orange (could win) to yellow (honorable mentions) to green (made the top nine).

Honestly, the field at The Masters feels easier to figure out than a normal PGA Tour field. With all of the aging past champions and amateurs, we could eliminate those guys right away.

On top of that, players making their debut at The Masters have not won since 1979 (despite Ludvig Åberg's best efforts last year), so they could be eliminated as well.

Course history and course knowledge are tantamount to playing well at Augusta, so strong prior finishes factored in highly to these rankings.

After more analysis, I found 22 players who could feasibly win The Masters this year. Apologies to those in the 22-15 range in the full rankings, but let's see if we can land a green jacket this year.

Honorable Mentions: Keegan Bradley, Tyrrell Hatton, Shane Lowry, Jordan Spieth, Sepp Straka

9. Xander Schauffele

The golf world's most recent major champion, Schauffele began to show signs of life at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago, finishing T12 with his iron play getting back to his 2024 levels.

The world No. 3 has played very well at Augusta throughout his career, with four top-10s in seven career starts. Because Schauffele finally showed golf fans that he can win big tournaments with a pair of major wins a season ago, he has to be in the rankings for The Masters, even if he's not quite fully back yet.

8. Russell Henley

I never would've imagined Russell Henley would reach the top 10 in the world, but here we are.

Henley has overcome being below average in driving distance by excelling at every other facet of his game going into The Masters.

With four top-25 finishes on the year, including a victory at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Henley has never been better going into Augusta, and I think his current form should have him rise up the leaderboard this week.

7. Akshay Bhatia

Augusta's layout has always played easier for left-handed players, especially navigating the par-5s, and being able to hit high cuts into greens and off tees instead of trying to control draws.

We're going to include the lefty that is most in form right now on the PGA Tour in Akshay Bhatia. He finished T35 in his Masters debut last year, but his improved iron play should fare well at a course that places a strong emphasis on solid approach play.

This is probably the biggest "reach" of my picks, but Bhatia's play this year has warranted strong consideration for this week. He could be this year's Max Homa at Augusta, so let's try to catch the wave.

6. Jon Rahm

Spoiler alert: There are two LIV Golf players in these rankings.

I struggled with how much weight to put into those events, but we've seen that the top guys still have the talent and capability to win majors. Jon Rahm is the first name on the list, what with being a past Masters champion and having gotten off to a strong start this season.

While last year gave us Rahm's worst Masters finish of his career (T45), I think now that he has gotten through the first year of the LIV circus, he'll settle back into his normal major championship form. So, don't be surprised if the Spaniard makes a run at a second green jacket this week.

5. Joaquín Niemann

He's not the No. 1 golfer in the world, as Phil Mickelson recently suggested, but Joaquín Niemann has been playing extremely well on the LIV circuit this season, having won twice so far this year (and just missing out on winning The Duels: Miami with partner Rick Shiels).

Niemann has teed it up at Augusta five times now, recording top-25 finishes in each of the last two years, and this feels like the first year the 26-year-old star will genuinely contend at The Masters.

Niemann was the name I was probably most bummed about leaving for LIV because he felt like he was just about to explode on the PGA Tour before he left. However, his game is peaking at the right time, and the Chilean feels primed to make a true run at winning a major.

4. Justin Thomas

Maybe Justin Thomas shouldn't be in these rankings because it's not a PGA Championship week.

Thomas has had a tough run at Augusta as of late, missing the cut the last two years after tying for eighth in 2022.

However, JT's game was in a very rough state in 2023 and 2024, and his play so far this season is much closer to the Justin Thomas of old. Nearly a winner at the Valspar, he should factor into the story of this year's Masters and can hopefully finally snap his nearly three-year-long winless streak.

3. Collin Morikawa

The top of the "next best" tier below the top two, Morikawa is the idealized version of Russell Henley.

With three straight top-10 finishes at Augusta, Morikawa kind of needs to win another major soon so that the two he won early in his career don't seem so flukey.

Morikawa's floor is so high right now that anything other than a top-10 from him would be surprising. He's going to be hanging around on the weekend, so maybe this is the year he's able to put everything together at Augusta.

2. Scottie Scheffler

Shoutout to Scottie Scheffler for putting the ravioli on his Champions' Dinner menu.

Scheffler's Masters record speaks for itself. In five starts, he's already a two-time winner, the defending champion, and has never finished outside of the top 20 at Augusta.

While the world No. 1 hasn't won yet this year, he's made runs at a few tournaments, including nearly taking down Min Woo Lee at the Houston Open. It's clear the hand injury isn't bothering Scheffler anymore, and a healthy Scottie is always going to be dangerous at Augusta.

1. Rory McIlroy

I know I shouldn't do this. I know I'm setting us all up for disappointment. I know all the reasons why Rory McIlroy can't complete the career Grand Slam this week. But this year just feels different.

Already with wins at Pebble Beach and The Players, he's never played this well or won this much going into The Masters in his career.

The scar tissue has built up so much over the years for McIlroy, but everything is pointing in the right direction for him this time around. This is a new Rory McIlroy we're watching, and this version can win The Masters.

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