The coffee stretch of the golf calendar continues this week, as the final major of the year is upon us with the 153rd playing of The Open Championship.
The Open makes its way back to Northern Ireland and Royal Portrush, where we saw Shane Lowry capture the Claret Jug in 2019.
Royal Portrush offers a bit more of a coastal test than other courses in The Open rotation, and this should lead to players dealing with more swirling winds and difficult stretches of play as they get to the far reaches of the course, where they are more exposed to the elements.
Hopefully, this year, we won't have to deal with the same waterlogged issues that we did in 2019, when Lowry won at 15-under.
The Open as a major acts as closer to a great equalizer of talent and luck, as it is here where we have had more of those "out of nowhere" type winners than other majors.
The last time someone who could be considered a "favorite" won The Open was Jordan Spieth in 2017. While my rankings do lean heavily towards the guys at the top of the betting sheets, don't be surprised if someone further down the board wins this week (I will say this with confidence: K.J. Choi will not win this week).
We had a couple of close calls at the Scottish Open last week, with Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, and honorable mention Marco Penge all coming close, but falling at the hands of Chris Gotterup. We hit Rory at The Masters and Scottie Scheffler at the PGA this year, so let's end the year hitting three of four in the majors.
Honorable Mentions: Ludvig Aberg, Matt Fitzpatrick, Harry Hall, Collin Morikawa, Kristoffer Reitan
9. Ben Griffin
This is my most muted excitement for Ben Griffin this season, and it's only because of the level of the event. Griffin did not play well at the John Deere, missing his first cut since the Byron Nelson.
He took a well-deserved week off, and is coming into The Open rested and ready to pounce. Because of Portrush's focus on accuracy and approach play, I think Griffin can thrive in this environment, especially if he catches the right side of the draw when it comes to the weather.
While his track record at The Open has not been great (he's missed the weekend in each of his two appearances), Griffin's game has taken a huge leap in the last 12 months, and I expect a stronger performance this week.
8. Tommy Fleetwood
Negative: Tommy Fleetwood did not play well at the Scottish Open. Positive: Most of his struggles came due to him having his worst putting week of the year since The Masters.
I know that Fleetwood is one of these guys where the pressure is extra ramped up when it comes to The Open, but his ball-striking is there for him to make a run this year. He finished second to Shane Lowry here in 2019 (albeit by six shots), and it feels like the 34-year-old is ready to get the monkey off his back this week.
7. Jordan Spieth
Do you know the last time Jordan Spieth finished outside of the top 25 at an Open Championship? All the way back in 2016, when he finished T30.
Through all of the ups and downs, injuries, and everything else, the Prodigal Son has always played at least decently at The Open. We haven't seen Spieth since the U.S. Open, where he put up his best strokes gained on approach week in over three years.
This season has been Spieth's most consistent season in a couple of years, and I know to expect the roller coasters with him, but I'm ready to take the ride this week.
6. Sepp Straka
I know Sepp Straka has not shown up at the other majors, but that has also been the story of his career.
The two-time winner on the PGA Tour this year has finished in the top 25 twice in three career Opens, including finishing T2 behind Brian Harman at the 2023 edition. I originally was not going to have him in the rankings, but his seventh-place finish at the Scottish Open has filled me with a little bit more hope around Straka's potential at Portrush.
5. Russell Henley
I never thought I would ever write out the sentence, "Russell Henley is a top-five golfer in the world", but he has reached that milestone officially in the OWGR.
One of the many stat nerd golf personalities I follow in their Open Championship preview mentioned how guys who play well during the Florida Swing tend to play well in The Open, especially courses like Portrush with swirling winds off the water and dealing with tight lies on chips and such.
No one golfer screams "Florida Swing" more than Russell Henley, who took down the Arnold Palmer earlier this year. He has also had three straight top-10s, including a T2 at Travelers and a T10 at the U.S. Open. His approach play has been so strong all year, as long as Henley keeps it in the fairway, he'll be golden.
4. Xander Schauffele
Xander Schauffele is going to be this week's forgotten man, and I think that'll work to his benefit. Yes, he is the reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, but it feels like no one is really taking his defense chances seriously based on the year he's had.
The biggest thing this year is that Xander's putting has taken a dive off of a cliff compared to last year, but with the fescue greens that will be running slower than normal PGA Tour greens, Schauffele should be able to feel more agressive and more confident with the putter this week. Don't let the X-Man sneak up on you.
3. Jon Rahm
Jon Rahm has finished in the top 10 at The Open three of the last four years, he almost won at LIV Andalucia last week (granted, he did lose to Talor Gooch, so you know there's no asterisk), and he's been so consistent all year.
The two-time major champ feels built in a lab to win an Open Championship. Maybe it's the Spanish connection with Seve that's causing that thinking, but Rahm is too good a golfer not to contend this week.
2. Scottie Scheffler
Another week, another top-10 finish for Scottie at the Scottish Open.
However, much like his recent performances at the Scottish and British Opens, the putter was a bit of a problem for the top-ranked golfer in the world. His track record at the Open has been solid, with four top-25s in four appearances, but it always feels like the luck aspect of links golf doesn't compute with Scottie's brain.
He's still going to play very well this week, but don't be surprised if he comes up just short on major number four.
1. Rory McIlroy
The man of the hour this week, Rory McIlroy is looking to improve on his missed cut at Royal Portrush in 2019.
After a rocky May and June following his Masters victory, McIlroy seems to have found his mojo again, with a T6 at Travelers and a T2 last week in Scotland. Whatever he lost with his irons, Rory has regained.
As much as the storyline being completing the career Grand Slam drove McIlroy at Augusta, winning The Open in his home country will absolutely drive Rory this weekend, and the Masters champ's form should allow him to threaten at Royal Portrush.