The Florida Swing is now upon us, as the PGA Tour makes its way to PGA National for the Cognizant Classic. Unfortunately for the tournament, it now sits as an in-between event for the big names in the Signature Events, falling right between Riviera and the Arnold Palmer on the schedule. While a lot of the star names may not be in this week's field, it still sets up to be a very fun tournament to watch.
Last week at Riviera was another close call for the rankings, with Rory McIlroy finishing one shot behind eventual winner (and probably should have been in the honorable mentions at the very least) Jacob Bridgeman.
This week isn't going to be easy to find the winner, as PGA National is a real all-around game course, so there's not one true skill to focus on when looking at potential winners. We need to break this losing streak; hopefully, we can pull one out this week.
Honorable Mentions: Daniel Berger, Garrick Higgo, Max Homa, Brooks Koepka, Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen
9. Kevin Roy
A bit of a boom or bust play, Kevin Roy has managed to make the cut in two of his first four starts this season, finishing T13 at both Sony and Phoenix. Roy's solid finishes at the end of last season and so far this year have been on the basis of his putting, which has seen a major improvement in the last six months. If he's able to get everything going in the right direction, we could see a repeat of his performance from last year's John Deere, where he finished one shot out of the playoff.
8. Haotong Li
I am beyond excited that we have Haotong Li back in our lives on a weekly basis. His most memorable moment is probably his 63 in the final round of the 2017 Open, but probably not that remembered because of Spieth's craziness on Sunday and Branden Grace's 62 on Saturday.
Regardless, Li is fully back and has already picked up two top-11 finishes in his return to the Tour. He might be the most fun possible winner in this week's field, so let's root for that outcome together.
7. Doug Ghim
I am once again writing to beg Doug Ghim to have a good putting week when I put him into the rankings. He's played well here the last couple of years, with a T16 in 2024 and a T11 last year. It has been the thing that has plagued Ghim through his whole career, but when he's on, his talent is up there with anyone on Tour. This is a prayer to the golf gods: let this man figure out his putter.
6. David Ford
Ford is working his way through his first full season on Tour after coming through the PGA Tour U program, and he's shown flashes of the talent that led him to the Haskins Award last year. I always give the caveat for rookies/guys in their first year on Tour that it's a lot to get used to being on Tour full-time, so seemingly underwhelming results should be expected. However, between a T13 at The American Express and a T3 at the Bank of Utah during the fall, Ford is showing that he's adjusting a little quicker than expected, and we could see everything line up for a strong finish again this weekend.
5. Mac Meissner
Much like Harry Hall, Mac Meissner falls into the group of players with a huge difference between their DataGolf ranking and their current OWGR ranking. Meissner put up a respectable T18 in Phoenix, and he feels like the type of guy who should be able to break out.
He does everything pretty well and has the ability to go low, but he just hasn't gotten the right luck to go his way during a tournament to get him that first win. While his track record at PGA National hasn't inspired confidence, I think that Meissner is going to get a lot of eyeballs this weekend.
4. Alex Smalley
One of my breakout picks this year, Smalley finally feels like he's piecing things together again after a solid T19 at a difficult Pebble Beach setup. He's like Mac Meissner, but I think that Smalley has a slightly higher ceiling than Meissner.
I don't think Smalley will ever pull off a J.J. Spaun-type run where he truly becomes a world-class talent, but this level of event is exactly the type of tournament that Smalley can take down. If Joe Highsmith can win this tournament, then Alex Smalley can win this tournament.
3. Shane Lowry
While Shane Lowry wasn't able to pick up any wins in 2025 and the majors were a major disappointment, he still put up an overall solid performance that resulted in a return to the Tour Championship.
A run of events in Europe before and after the Ryder Cup seemingly got Lowry his groove back, as he's come out this season with a T8 at Pebble Beach and a T24 at Riviera. Lowry loves PGA National, PGA National loves the Irishman, it seems like fate that he picks up a win here this year.
2. Michael Thorbjornsen
Look, Pebble Beach was not kind to Thor at all, and a Sunday 79 will really put a damper on things. A much-needed reset was the best call for Thor, and I think that getting back to a settled mental state is going to do wonders for him. He was leading with three holes left on Sunday in Phoenix, so he's right there in terms of being ready to win, it's a matter of shutting the door on it. I think that comes this weekend.
1. Ryan Gerard
He's cooled off a tiny bit since his hot start to the season, but Ryan Gerard is still one of the best performers so far this year, and it would be wrong to not pick him when he's the best player in the field. He's also picked up two top-25s in two career starts at PGA National in his career, so it's not like we're going to a course that he hates. Gerard has felt like the easy answer all week, and sometimes Occam's Razor is correct.