There are some courses that deliver newcomers to the major winner’s circle, but Shinnecock Hills isn’t one of them.
It’s a funny thing about golf courses. They seem to have personalities. And they have quirky ways of choosing who will win the U.S. Open, as well as other major championships.
The very best example of this is Olympic Club. It’s where famous major champions go to be disappointed and disheartened. It’s where Jack Fleck beat Ben Hogan. Where Billy Casper outlasted Arnold Palmer. Where Scott Simpson defeated Tom Watson. Where Lee Janzen conquered Payne Stewart.
Not that there’s anything wrong with those who won. Olympic is just a heartbreak course for favorites. And if you’re a guy who hasn’t yet won his U.S. Open, but you’ve contended or won other events, then pray for a U.S. Open at Olympic because your chances are just plain better at that track.
Oakmont CC can give you anyone as a winner, favorite, or newcomer to the U.S. Open. Don’t believe it? Look at the list of winners. Tommy Armour, big name. Sam Parks, Jr., not a big name. Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Johnny Miller, Dustin Johnson, big names. Lesser names? Larry Nelson, Angel Cabrera, J.J. Spaun.
And Oakmont even gave us a lesser name U.S. Open champ who went on to become a really big name, so famous that Big is in his nickname: The Big Easy, Ernie Els.
Now, take a look at Pebble Beach. It’s a half-and-half situation. Superstars Jack Nicklaus, Tom Watson, and Tiger Woods on the one hand, and regular stars Tom Kite, Gary Woodland, and Graeme McDowell on the other. Clearly, Pebble is conflicted as to whether it’s in the Olympic Club camp or not.
Oak Hill in Rochester leans toward the star category. U.S. Open champions there have been Curtis Strange, his second in a row, Lee Trevino and Cary Middlecoff. But PGA champs included stars Jack Nicklaus and Brooks Koepka as well as good players but not headliners like Jason Dufner and Shaun Micheel.
Oakland Hills outside of Detroit is a bit like Pebble Beach. It also had some of both kinds of winners, mainly because it has hosted a lot of majors. Ben Hogan, Gene Littler and Tommy Armour won U.S. Opens there, but so did Steve Jones, Ralph Guldahl and Cyril Walker. The PGAs it hosted may push it into a new category of famous foreign winners with Padraig Harrington, David Graham and Gary Player all finding success.
Now let’s look at the Shinnecock Hills champions. James Foulis won the second U.S. Open in 1896. While Foulis may be a “who’s he?” to most of us, he was the professional at Chicago Golf Club, one of the five founding clubs of the USGA. So, in his time, he was special. He was born in St. Andrews, Scotland, and his father and his brothers were all employed somehow in golf.
The next four winners of the U.S. Open at Shinnecock were all names of one sort or another. Raymond Floyd who was famous for his stare when he was on a victory march. Floyd won in 1986, defeating Lanny Wadkins, Chip Beck, and Greg Norman, who had the third-round lead.
Floyd became the oldest U.S. Open champion that week, that is until Hale Irwin won the championship in 1990.
In 1995, it was Corey Pavin’s time to shine. Before that, Pavin won at Colonial CC, a tight course that could have been an early predictor of U.S. Open success. He also won the Hawaiian Open twice, the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic twice, and the LA Open (now Tiger Woods’ tournament) twice, beating Fred Couples both times.
Pavin chased down Greg Norman, again the third-round leader, and also bested Tom Lehman. He is remembered for the amazing 4-wood second shot he hit on the 18th hole in the final round, which landed approximately five feet from the hole.
Retief Goosen won the 2004 U.S. Open with a short game that was quite miraculous. In the final round, he had 11 one-putts and just couldn’t be stopped. Phil Mickelson finished second that year. He three-putted the 17th hole for a double bogey, giving Goosen the edge and the trophy
In 2018, while others were cursing bumpy and fast greens and Brooke Koepka kept calm and carried on and walked away with his second U.S. Open in a row. He was the first player to win back-to-back U.S. Opens since Curtis Strange in 1988 and 1989.
So now you see why the winner of the U.S. Open at Shinnecock Hills is likely to be a player you know, a player who has won something important before, a player who has perhaps won prior majors. It’s what the course likes to do. So just don’t go betting on a long shot or a guy no one knows. It’s going to be a popular or well-known winner.
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