Hero World Challenge Expert Picks

We took a bit of a hiatus from these pieces, but are back to preview our final event of the 2024 PGA Tour Season from a betting perspective. The final event is the Hero World Challenge, an event that may not offer FedEx Cup points or official money, but is still a part of the PGA Tour schedule. It features twenty of the best golfers in the world, including Scottie Scheffler, Ludvig Aberg, and Justin Thomas. So let’s take a look at what we expect this course to offer and who to tail this week to play well. 

The Course – Albany Golf Course, The Bahamas

Let's talk about another golfing legend-designed course, Ernie Els' Albany Golf Course in the Bahamas. Now a bit of a longer track here for a tour event, as it is just shy of 7500 yards. The majority of the par fives will be tough to go after in two and make a low number, but birdies can be made for sure. The par threes are all pretty standard length, so just hitting the middle of these greens and making a three will be a huge asset. One par four to watch for lower scores will be the 14th, which is listed at 307 yards. If players are able to drop an eagle, or at the very least birdie it each day, they will be in a great spot.

When it comes to how this course has scored historically, the magic number is -16. If you are sitting at -16, you are at the very least in top-five contention. You likely need to get closer to -18 or -20 if you want to win it, but scores have been quite low here in years past. Given the smaller field, an elite player will also win this event. The past five winners are Jon Rahm, Henrik Stenson, Viktor Hovland (twice), and Scottie Scheffler. So looking for a dark horse for a bigger payday is highly unlikely here. Elite ball striking and who is making their putts will be the deciding factor. 

All odds are courtesy of BetMGM unless otherwise noted. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. All bets are 1 unit unless otherwise noted. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Golf betting record: 3-16-0 for -3.05 Units (Follow Us On Betstamp @CompetitiveHedge)

Hero World Challenge Picks For Winner, Top 5, and Top 10

Winner Pick For The Hero World Challenge (0.1 Units): Justin Thomas +1000; also Top 5 at +120 (0.4 Units)

We are doubling down on Tigers' best pal to have a great week in the Bahamas. Justin Thomas just loves this event, finishing in the top five in his last four appearances here. With only twenty golfers in the field, finishing top five once again is completely attainable, especially since the field is a tad weaker than in previous years. Not much else to cover when it comes to this pick, Thomas has yet to win this Tiger Woods-hosted event. He is hungry to finally be the groom, not a groomsman, and this feels like the year he gets over the hump. 

Top 10 Pick For The Hero World Challenge (0.5 Units): Sam Burns +165

Now Thomas may have the best top-five history in the last number of years, but Sam Burns has also performed well here in the past. Now, 2023 and 2022 were a rough showing for Burns, but in 2021 he finished tied for third, three shots back of Hovland. With less talent in this field, it is pretty wide open to finish in the top five, after Thomas and Scheffler. Burns played quite well at the Presidents Cup and was T12 and T2 in his two events prior to that as well. Now, granted we are a few months removed from those performances, but he should be rested up and ready to perform. At +165 I think that is great value given his history and the year he just had on tour.