Easily one of the biggest storylines coming into this 2025 edition of The Masters was (and still is) Rory McIlroy taking his 11th attempt at the career Grand Slam, as all he needs is a green jacket to join the elite club that currently only includes Gene Sarazen, Ben Hogan, Gary Player, Jack Nicklaus, and Tiger Woods.
Most pundits, myself included, believed that Rory simply had to get off to a great start on Thursday, as he's famously struggled in the opening round at Augusta National, shooting in the 60s just twice in his previous 16 appearances.
And for much of his first round, Rory was doing exactly what he needed to do.
After making a pair of pars to start his day, McIlroy got into red figures with a birdie at the short par-4 third hole.
Four consecutive pars followed, and he then carded back-to-back birdies at Nos. 8 and 9 to go out in 3-under 33.
After three pars to open his second nine, Rory notched his fourth birdie of the afternoon, reaching the par-5 13th in two and two-putting to get to 4-under, putting him in a tie for second place.
He had a great chance to inch even closer to leader Justin Rose at the par-4 14th after hitting his approach to eight feet, but his birdie putt just grazed the hole and stayed out, leaving him a tap-in par.
Still in great shape, the 35-year-old found the fairway at the par-5 15th and hit his second just over the putting surface, giving himself an opportunity to get up and down for birdie.
But just as Patrick Cantlay had done twice only three groups earlier, McIlroy hit his chip a little too hard and watched his golf ball roll down into the water on the other side of the green. He then opted to take his drop on the opposite side of the drink and ultimately recorded a double-bogey seven, dropping him back to 2-under.
After a par at the 16th, disaster struck again at the par-4 17th. Once more over the green on his approach, Rory again hit his ensuing chip a little too crisply and watched his ball roll 28 feet past the hole.
From there, it took him three putts to finally find the bottom of the cup, giving him a second double bogey and dropping him back to even. And that's where he ended his afternoon after a par at the 18th, leaving him seven shots back of Rose in a tie for 27th, a position in which recent history suggests Rory has already lost this golf tournament.
Nobody outside the top 11 after Round 1 has won The Masters since 2005
Since the inception of The Masters in 1934, 72 of the 88 previous winners were in the top 11 on the leaderboard after 18 holes. That's 81.8% for those wondering. So, all-time history doesn't favor Rory moving forward.
And it's certainly been a minute since the most recent outlier, as the last 19 winners have been part of the group of 72. The last person to don the green jacket not to be in the top 11 after Round 1 was none other than Tiger Woods in 2005.
Woods was tied for 33rd after an opening-round 74 that year but then went on to shoot 66-65-71 over the next three rounds, ultimately defeating Chris DiMarco in a playoff. That tournament is mainly remembered for Tiger's miraculous chip-in birdie on the 16th.
Now, McIlroy undoubtedly has the ability to get hot at any time and has certainly done so on numerous occasions at The Masters, going as low as 64 and twice shooting 65. So, if anyone can break this top-11 streak, it's Rory.
Again, though, history is not on his side at the moment. But if McIlroy were able to mount a comeback, it might just make the victory—and the career Grand Slam—that much sweeter.